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Gold & Silver Majors

Updated October 19-21, 2022 -  Maturing Cup and Handle formation = BUY NOW.


HUI-Gold ratio
HUIGOLD ratio
HUI-index monthly: compare today's bottom to the 2008 bottom...
HUI monthIsland reversal, huge bullish wedge...and a cigar!
Our Medium Term BUY/SELL indicator
BPGDM candle

HUI special ratio with targets
HUI pf3

The sector is clearly showing a negative mood for Gold and Silver, and stocks have been moving down in a leveraged way compared to Gold and Silver. Quality mining shares are dramatically undervalued. The value is exceptional, so I think it will have a slingshot effect when gold and silver recover and investors gain some confidence. The upside impact on the price of the shares will be something to behold. Expect at least a 600% increase in the HUI index.

Miners are DIGITAL entities with counterparty RISK = DANGEROUS! Don't waste your time, energy, and money buying Gold Shares! Buy the REAL THING: physical gold and silver, and store it out of political reach.

The current correction in gold stocks WAS the fourth-longest since 1879. The decline of 66% ranks in the top 10 of recorded history. I think the price level of these shares is an ABERRATION...August 2015 - January 2016

  1. Markets tend to return to the mean over time.
  2. Excesses in one direction will lead to an excess in the opposite direction. (Gold & Silver sector)
  3. There are no new eras - excesses are never permanent.
  4. Exponential rapidly rising or falling markets usually go further than you think, but they do not correct by going sideways.
  5. The public buys the most at the top and the least at the bottom.
  6. Fear and greed are more potent than long-term resolve.

On fundamental values, gold and silver shares trade at historic low valuations as in 2008 when you were able to buy companies:

      • - for less than the cash in the bank
      • - for less than $10 per ounce of gold in the ground
      • - for less than 1,000 times the annual gold production
      • - for a dividend yield of 2.5% or more

Lower your costs and enlarge your positions during corrections (NOW) in the entire Gold sector. The long-term uptrend has been confirmed, and we expect a bull run to last for more months. Expect shares to suffer somewhat during Stock Market Bear Runs! Next month we expect better results with increased dividends and higher earnings. The Hedge funds had their way with the gold shares, but logically this is coming to an end. When you can buy companies whose resources are three times the company’s present capitalization, the share is getting unreasonably cheap. It is very well plausible that Hedge fund managers use any negative news in the sector to play their little shorting game.

We prefer the Juniors to ETFs, to Futures, Options, and Turbos. The other advantage Juniors have, is that the Seniors will take them over as their gold-ore-reserves decrease. NEVER forget that by holding DERIVATIVES, you are using UNCONTROLLED and UNREGULATED investment instruments (which are mostly manipulated)

The price will go up when time is up - and time is up (Oct 6, 2017) HUI - Gold, and Silver bugs index
gold mine Bullish Objective 480 - 910 - 1600
Resistance 380
Support 320
Bearish Target 280
Technical Pattern SCREAMING BUY

[Most Recent HUI from www.kitco.com]

Math's today and Magic tomorrow.
The price will go up when the time is up!

Gold and Silver shares have been impacted by significant short positions held in almost all. Shorters hope to scare long-term and weak holders out of their positions. Shorters, however, MUST sooner or later cover their positions...
Majors expressed in Gold.

Our Opinion: BUY and be patient!

  • Each correction is a low-risk entry point. The last time the HUI and Gold mines were in this similar constellation, they increased by 150% in only six months. Just the beginning: Looking at the charts of the individual mines, it occurs to me that Gold will continue its bull run for some time now. At this time (Nov4), the Bull run has barely started.

  • At present, gold mining stocks are undervalued relative to gold bullion, so those seeking extra leverage should consider investing in dominant gold producers. Finally, in our view, the high-cost South-African gold producers which do not hedge their production offer the maximum leverage to gold. And at current prices, these companies are being given away.

  • A Goldmine is literally priced lower than top-quality DIRT, COMPOST, and MULCH. Goldmines suffered because of the negative expectations of Gold and probably ALSO because of manipulation. (June 2013)

The most significant profits will be generated by Majors and Juniors, which have been incorrectly sold "en masse" by the stupid Herd (incl. Hedge funds)

HUI pf1

Short term candle Chart Comment
HUI candle1

The Central Bankers and US Authorities have fully orchestrated this correction. When the market will try to normalize itself, a Bank Holiday may be expected!

  • August 7, 2015: Blood runs through the streets...
  • Nov 23 - Dec 29: multiple bottom formation
  • Feb 6, 2016: Index breaks RESISTANCE = bullish indication for Gold.
  • Jan 11 - Feb 9, 2017: fresh upleg
  • July 7 - August 30 = SCREAMING BUY!
  • Jan 14, 2018: expect a Bull run...very soon.
  • Dec 9 - May 25, 2019: SCREAMING BUY! ...it's now or never.
  • June 20: spectacular BULLISH-BREAK-AWAY-GAP on the short candle
  • Jan 3, 2020: breaking its main downtrend line (red on PF-chart)
  • March 16 - April 13: SCREAMING BUY
  • Jan 13 - Feb 25, 2021: BUY NOW!
  • Mar 8 - May 12: Screaming BUY. Mind the TRADING RANGE on the long candle and know that the bigger the zone, the stronger the uptrend after the breakout.
  • June 20 - Feb. 13, 2022: SCREAMING BUY. The target is 380.
  • Mar. 10 - Apr. 19: Breaking out! (=BUY)
  • May 10: breakout aborted...and back to a critical support zone = Strong BUY.
  • June 27 - July 22 - Aug. 10 - Sep. 14: BUY.
  • Oct. 19: maturing Cup & Handle Formation = Super Buy!
Long term candle
HUI candle2

CAUTION: Royalties are DIGITAL shares and hence are part of the DIGITAL CASINO-GAME!
We expect that Physical Gold & Silver will perform BETTER and are SAFER than DIGITAL MINERS.  

Green colored charts = Bull trends, Red = bear trends, White = sideward & we don't know yet!
The only time I remember having lived this kind of market action was in October 1987...it ended up being THE BUY opportunity for common stocks for the next 35 years.!.. Charts & yields (yields updated Aug 2022). Click on the heading for the Company's profile.[*] the lower figure, the better mine]

Yamana (AUY) yield-2.41% Newmont (NEM) 1.18 oz gold/share 1.27% yield-4.86%
Newcrest Mining (NCMGY)
yield-3.37%
Hochschild Mining (HOC.L) yield-4.04%
Anglo Gold (AU)   yield-4.19%
AUY pf1 NEM pf1 NCMGY pf1 HOCl pf1 AU pf1
Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Mexico, and Canada 0.02 oz gold/share 0.78%
Can., USA, Mex., Cntrl & Sth America-mix- Australia, Peru, Indonesia, Ghana, Suriname -15.600
AUSTRALIA
(RSA, Africa, Australasia, Americas-52,000-mix) 0.35%
       
ASA (ASA)
yield - 0.13%
Barrick (Gold)
yield - 4.94%
Gold Resource Corp (GORO) yield - 2.16%
Alamos (AGI)
yield - 1.27%
Kinross (KGC)
yield - 3.46%

ASA pf1 GOLD pf1 GORO pf1 AGI pf1 KGC pf1
mutual fund of miners
USA, Can, Aus, Argt, Chile, Peru, Dom. Rep, Papua, Tanzania, Zambia & Saudi, Sahara-3,714
Mexico-12 - 0.50%
Canada, USA, Mexico, Turkey 1300 - 0.67%
(Can, USA, Russia, Brazil, Chile, Ghana, and Mauritania-9,000) 0.04 oz/share -[2.4*]
         
Agnico Eagle(AEM)
yield - 3.68%
Centerra(GC.TO)
yield-3.58%
Hecla (HL)
yield - 0.54%
Equinox Gold (EQX)
Pan Am. (PAAS)
yield - 2.11%
AEM pf1 CGto pf1 HL pf1 EQX pf1 PAAS pf1
prod.cost $535 Can, Finland, Mex-5,000-mix-0.93%
Kyrgyz Rep, Mongolia, Turkey, Canada-2,400 
Silver worldwide-1,400 0.34%
EQX has taken over Premier Gold
Silver - (Peru, Mex, Argent,Bolivia-4,100 - 0.63%
       
Coeur d'Alene(CDE) Turquoise Hill (TRQ) Endeavor (EDV.TO)
yield - 3.69%
MAG Silver (MAG.TO)
Seabridge Gold (SA)
CDE pf1 TRQ pf1 EDVto_pf1.png MAGto_pf1.png SA pf1
Ag- world-2,000 [2.3*]
W. Africa-2,400
Mexico - mixed-9 *****
AU, Ag & Copper
         
Newcrest (NCMGY) yield - 3.37%
DRD-Gold
yield - 3.99%
Gold Fields (GFI)
yield - 3.35%
Harmony (HMY)
yield - 1.29%
Sibanye Gold(SBSW)
yield - 12.21%
NCMto pf1 DRD pf1 GFI pf1 SBGL pf1
Australia
RSA-Joburg 1.76 oz/share - 2.20%
RSA, Ghana, Australia, and Peru-9,000 - 0.36 oz/share
RSA, Papua New Guinea: Cu, Ag, UR, and molybdenum -na%
4.05% yield RSA, Kloof, Driefon,40,000 -Gold & Platinum-na%
Money Flow is descending. 12-month perform. vs. SP500 12-month performance vs. Goud    
majors FLOW majors RRG SPX majors RRG Gold  Sell all Miners with interests in South Africa.  
         
cheap goldminers 2015-12-15

notes:

  • marges goudmijnenDividends of Gold and Silver miners are growing exponentially. (see fundamentals) Focus on Gold mines as I expect these to perform better than Silver mines. PF charts are NOT adjusted for dividends. Gold and Silver miners survived for 20 years when Gold was traded at around $ 250/oz...so why would they not when Gold trades at around $ 1300 !?
  • BUY by preference those shares which sit in the bottom/lower part of their trend channel or have broken out and positively tested the breakout price.
  • A general pattern of Leg 1 - 2008 deleveraging or halfway stop - and Leg 2 becomes more and more visible. Typically after Leg 2, we have a Buying climax, but we aren't there yet!
  • Positive bullish signals are: price sits on 200 days MA, Bullish divergence, Bullish wedge, Bullish flag, Bullish coil, Bullish cup, and handle, oversold daily, weekly, and monthly technical indicators,...LOW POLE REVERSALS and BREAKOUT of BULLISH WEDGES.
  • Kinross (KGC) is a decent senior gold mining company. Still, after taking a $2.49-billion write-down in February for the Tasiast mine, it has been nothing but a prime example of an overreaction and a potential buying opportunity.
  • Pan American Silver - PAAS:  almost debt-free/reduced exploitation costs – co’ to become one of the big three silver co’s as silver production will double by 2015. Geoff Burns, Pan American's President and CEO, said: "We are incredibly pleased to have concluded the acquisition of Minefinders. This strategic transaction increases our near-term silver and gold production and cash flow and meaningfully reduces our average cash costs across our eight producing mines while at the same time geographically de-risking our overall portfolio.  In addition, Pan American should reap the benefits of a sector-leading and well-sequenced growth profile.
  • Especially Randgold Resources is a steal. The company’s Tongon mine is their newest project and is currently being commissioned, but news flow has been slow and hasn’t drawn much attention. Look to see this issue resolved over the next couple of months.
  • Banro (BAA) is one to buy and hold for the next couple of years.
  • Silvercorp is one of the few companies that has successfully navigated China. Our models indicate there is much more upside available from these assets than where the stock is currently priced. SVM also has a very attractive relative valuation to its North American peers. In some cases, we have seen 5% of their market capitalization turn over fairly consistently every day over the last month – those shareholders are obviously not around for the long term. [chart in the section of Gold and Silver juniors].
  • SA Goldmines suffer because of the discussion about the nationalization threat of the SA Gold mines (ANC leader Malena was using it in his election campaign - Elections are in Dec 2012 - Malena has been kind of liquidated). The De Beers family sold some of its interests in SA mining companies to Anglo American but moved its HQ to Gaborone (Botswana). DE BEERS moved its HQ from London (UK) to Gaborone. [GDP of Botswana is steadily growing ≈ 8%]
  • The run on the Bank of the Gold Cartel is unfolding. Much more gold and silver have been sold than can be delivered. The implications for the gold & silver price are mind-boggling.
  • Leverage to Gold: Kinross 3,5: 1,Randgold: 4,9: 1,Royal Gold: 4,8: 1, Randgold: 1:1
  • Each outstanding common share of Osisko will be exchanged for C$2.09 in cash, 0.07264 of a common share of Agnico Eagle, 0.26471 of a common share of Yamana, and one common share (one-tenth of a common share on a consolidated basis) of a newly formed company that will acquire certain assets of Osisko as part of the Arrangement ("Osisko Gold Royalties Ltd").
  • TORONTO, July 2, 2015 - Alamos Gold Inc. (TSX/NYSE: AGI) and AuRico Metals Inc. (TSX: AMI) are pleased to announce the completion of the previously announced arrangement. Each former Alamos share held was ultimately exchanged for 1 Class A common share of Alamos ("Class A Shares"), US$0.0001 in cash, and 0.4397 AuRico Metals Shares, and each Former AuRico share held was ultimately exchanged for 0.5046 Class A Shares and 0.2219 AuRico Metals Shares. Upon closing, Alamos has approximately 255,505,000 Class A Shares outstanding, with Former Alamos and Former AuRico shareholders each owning approximately 50%, and AuRico Metals has approximately 118,120,000 shares outstanding with Former Alamos and Former AuRico shareholders each owning approximately 50% of the shares not held by Alamos.

    It is anticipated that Alamos will commence trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange ("TSX") and New York Stock Exchange ("NYSE") under the symbol "AGI," and AuRico Metals will commence trading on the TSX under the symbol "AMI" on July 6, 2015. Former Alamos and Former AuRico shares will be delisted from the TSX and NYSE that same day.



Table with low-risk step in levels and potential objectives: (Eldorado Gold is also listed under Gold & Silver juniors) When selecting a stock, preference is given to those where price sits on 200 days Moving Average and/or price sits on the bottom of uptrend channel (blue line) note: Table and Objectives have been updated - Objectives are short/medium term - use trailing stops once the target has been reached!

****


Updated January 18, 2012 - Durban Roodepoort Deep (Drooy) - a buy at these levels (DRD Gold)

We initially advised buying this stock at 75 cents...The potential objective is +1,015%...cheap again!. Durban Roodepoort runs the deepest Goldmines in the World...but lately, its behavior has been rather sloppy! Having said this, the stock is still cheap. Although South Africa has been managed differently since Mandela took over, the MAIN source of income is Mining, AND the white Anglo-Saxons have trained all black businesspeople after all.

With mining assets in South Africa, the company runs operations from exploration through to smelting. Shares are trading at $4.23 at the time of writing, toward the bottom end of their 52-week trading range of $3.96 to $6.23. The company is capitalized at $162.80 million at the current market price. Earnings per share for the last fiscal year were $1.21, placing the shares on a price-to-earnings ratio of 3.49. It paid a dividend of $0.06 last year (a yield of 1.40%) which was covered over 20 times by its earnings. It has the lowest price-to-earnings ratio of gold mining stocks.

This video clip is about Kinross mining in Mauritania:


November 2008 - Gold shares see the most significant jump in years. This is how fast Gold and Silver shares can go up...

Returns on Gold mines are swift and often not expected...a BULL RUN we have!

BigGoldmovers

Gold mines suffer somewhat because the trading business is redirected toward Gold and Silver ETFs.

© - All Rights Reserved - The report's contents may NOT be copied, reproduced, or distributed without the explicit written consent of Goldonomic.


 

01
April
2013

Mining in South Africa

(Gold) Mining is (South) Africa misunderstood by most Investors

Categories: Gold & Silver Majors, News, Gold & Silver Juniors

01
November
2012

Nov. 6 : Gold, silver soar in a most unusual fashion

This is what an intermediary bottom looks like in the media

Categories: Gold-$, Gold & Silver Majors, Silver, News, Gold & Silver Juniors, Investing for dummies

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