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  • The majority is never right. Never, I tell you! That’s one of these lies in society that no free and intelligent man can ever help rebelling against. Who are the people that make up the biggest proportion of the population — the intelligent ones or the fools? I think we can agree it’s the fools, no matter where you go in this world, it’s the fools that form the overwhelming majority - Henrik Ibsen.

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Oil Shares

Updated July 13, 2020 - There is an Oil War brewing...World War III!?


$XOI oil share index

BPENER oilsharesOverbought-Oversold ratio

oil pump Bullish Objective 1,620
Resistance 980
Support 500
Bearish Objective n.a.
Technical pattern Stop Loss ??

The COVID-19 & the Big Depression of the 21st Century need LESS CRUDE OIL.


XOI pf1
Short term candle
Chart comment
XOI candle1
  • Jan 11 - Feb 11, 2016: BOTTOM formation
  • June 13 - July 29: preparing the next leg
  • Jan 14, 2017: Bull Run
  • Jan 7, 2018: broken up the Head & Shoulders pattern = bullish
  • Jan 16: Head & Shoulders Target is 1,700 (+20%)
  • Jan 8 - Feb 18, 2019: BUY
  • June 27 - July 19: still a BUY - a WEAK MARKET with little or no volume tells us you best STAY AWAY.
  • Aug 19: This is a BUY at the present level.
  • Sep 21: Drones of no Drones...Last Augustus Oil shares were a BUY!
  • Jan 7, 2020: Oil shares to profit from higher oil  prices
  • Feb 17 - March 11: a BUY at the present level! This is MADNESS.
  • March 25 - April 17: our advice is to lower your position in Oil shares as Gaps are closed and the pullback reaches the 200 days MA
  • May 20: pull back as we expected.
  • June 12: brrr...charts don't look good for oil shares.
  • July 13: potential STOP LOSS situation.
Long term candle
XOI candle2

Oil drillers & services

Oil shares - Yields Mar 2020 - Green colored charts = Bull trends, Red = bear trends, White = sideward & we don't know yet!
Click on the name of the company to be redirected to their home page...
If present STOPS are confirmed, the Oil shares will reverse their trend.  [*Caution - OXY fundamentals!!]
Marathon(MRO) 
Occident. (OXY) BP
Exxon (XOM) Conoco (COP) Schlumberger (SLB)
USA USA Britain USA USA USA
MRO pf1 OXY pf1 small BP pf1 XOM pf1 small COP pf1 SLB pf1 small
4.11% yield
21.90% yield
9.25 % yield
8.02 % yield
 4.16 % yield
11 % yield
 Oil drillers & services      
Halliburton (HAL)  WPX-Energy Noble Drilling (NE)  Helmerich (HP)   12-mo performance vs. SP500  12-mo performance vs.   Gold
HAL_pf1 WPX pf1 NE pf1 HP pf1 oil RRG SPX oil RRG Gold
8.31% yield
1.86% yield
13.56% yield - Driller     
Oil drillers & services
Obsidian Eng. (OBE.TO)  Husky (HSE.TO)  Baker Hughes (BKR)  Nabors (NBR)   Money Flow Decreasing
OBEto pf1 HSEto pf1 small BHGE pf1 Will be deleted   oil FLOW
 SEC problem. was: Penn West 13.75 % yield 5.66% yield
5% Yield - Book value: $19.43    
Non-North American Oil co's
Rosneft (ROSN.L)** Petrochina (PTR) Royal Dutch(RDSb) Repsol (Spain) Sasoil(SSL) Trans Can. Pipeline (TRP.TO)**
SANCTIONS - Russia
100 % China Netherlands 40% China  South Africa
Canada
ROSNL pf1 PTR pf1 RDSb pf2 REPYY pf1 SSL pf1 TRPto pf1 small
5.13% yield
5.60% yield
 10% yield
6.38% yield
Diesel @ $60/bbl- 11.80% yield 3.55% yield
           
 Total (TOT)** Can Nat Res (CNQ) Petrobas (PBR) Enerplus Corp (ERF)  Equinor (EQNR)* - Norway BP Prudhoe Bay(BPT) Royalty
TOTAL CNQ pf1 PBR pf1 ERF pf1 EQNR pf1 BPT pf1
8.40% yield
yield 7.50%
yield 2.87% Brazil
 yield 4.63%
9.33% yield
Yield 35%

OIH candle3

  • There are dysfunction and craziness of the Oil markets and sooner or later it will backlash. The results can be devastating. Because of the manipulation of the paper oil markets (Derivatives) we expect a collision between physical supply and demand. (January 2009)

  • People in the oil industry are not seeing any demand destruction. Only the talking heads are seeing it. We rather have supply destruction because of these unrealistic low prices.

  •  # 1 Enemy of Oil is Government who will go and steal the money where it is. The latest best example was BP and the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico...Joe six-pack has become too blind to see through the political game...Windfall profit taxes: there always is a possibility to see these again. However, the power of Democrats has been curtailed...and we have peak oil. The sector is running into the 2008 resistance and needs to build some stamina before higher levels will be seen. Restrictions on drilling in the USA are about to be lifted...Drillers will profit.

  • Oil stocks offer an excellent diversification, pay a dividend, are SAFE and will go up a lot higher: Occidental petroleum or Oxy is our absolute favorite followed by Marathon Oil! Trans Canada pipeline is a strong buy. Don't forget Imperial Oil, Royal Dutch, and Statoil.

Note:

  • Andeavor(ANDV)  Take Overbid - Tesoro (TSO) + Western Refining =Andeavor-2.03% - no longer traded after Marathon Petroleum took over the co.
  • Marathon Oil paid out $ 20.07 per share in 2011. We used the funds to increase the position to 162 shares.
  • Conoco broke out in May 2013.
  • Royal Dutch new target (June 2014) is $ 90
  • BP Prudhoe Bay (BPT) has a dividend yield of 10.57 %
  • Baker Hughes TAKE OVER BID by Halliburton for $38 bn - share valued at $78.62
  • Shell takes over BG (British Gas) - April 2015.
  • Bellatrix :Net income rose from $67,000 in 2013 to $ 140,000 for 2014
  • Venezuela’s PDVSA is close to a deal with Schlumberger (SLB) in order to bolster the company’s presence in Venezuela. Schlumberger had announced its decision to curtail operations in the country after PDVSA ran up billions of dollars in unpaid bills with the oilfield services giant. Venezuela’s oil minister says "there are 14 Schlumberger drills that will start operations soon under a different financing scheme." Schlumberger did not comment.[June 2016]
  • TransCanada (TRP) won contracts on Monday from the Mexican government to build a $3.6 billion natural gas pipeline from Texas to the Mexican city of Tuxpan in the state of Veracruz on the Gulf Coast.

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Vandaag sterven er in Belgie evenveel mensen van een auto-ongeluk als van de Corona-virus! Gaat men nu ook al het wegverkeer stopleggen?

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