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Silver

October 2,  2026: Silver is Gold on steroids...BUY NOW! And it costs 18.0% more in China!


"This is the price evolution of FIAT PAPER SILVER! - Physical Silver sells at a 40% premium!
The physical price of silver is the REAL PRICE of silver" AND it is DIFFICULT to find any Physical silver to buy."

The physical silver market is tiny. About 700 million oz. of silver is mined each year worldwide, about 200 million oz. is recycled, and about 100 million oz. is from "other" sources, like governments. That's the supply side. At $20/oz., this is a $20 billion annual market.

There is a shortage of 250,000,000 ounces of Silver!

Silver BREAKS OUT of a HUGE, MATURE CUP & HANDLE formation with a calculated target of $248!

Important: this is the price evolution of FIAT-PAPER-SILVER, not of PHYSICAL SILVER.

Silver-Gold ratio long-term

Click here for HISTORIC SILVER.

  • JPMorgan holds over $19 billion of derivatives, but only $1 billion of silver stock is available!?
  • A 1-ounce gold coin has the purchasing power of 1 kg of silver.
  • Silver is often in backwardation. This occurs when the future contract is cheaper than the spot (physical) price. Today, the premium of PHYSICAL-SPT Silver is about +40% over the Futures price.
  • Historically, Silver corrections average 40%.
  • The futures market (also known as the paper market) is disconnected from the physical silver market.
  • Those who buy silver ETFs and Silver contracts can also keep their paper money, with almost the same benefits: if you buy silver, you must request physical delivery and store it out of political reach. If you don't, THEY will take it from you. Everyone playing with paper products is sure of one thing. Even if market fluctuations don't take it all away, they will eventually lose it all.
  • Silver is digesting the 1981 $30-$48 top pattern.
    After the breakout, this zone will become long-term support.

SLV ETF strip story: BREAKOUT  [SLV is an ETF & should not be bought as an investment !] -


Oct. 2: Buy Now Oct. 2: Exponential Oct. 2: Buy Now Consolidation on top of the trend channel before higher! Aug 28, 2017: PF Targets
SLV is a Ponzi scheme and a form of theft because it is structurally short on silver.

Breakout of halfway bottom consolidation - the medium-term target is $48, and the long-term target is $ 145!

This action explains the HUGE FLAG formation: "The Chinese are divesting out of paper right now.  We have observed a significant increase in both euro-denominated and dollar-denominated physical silver purchases.  When Silver took out $33, many physical orders were filled. The Chinese are doing the same thing in the silver market as in the gold market, with massive accumulation on dips.  It is also important to note that the local silver traders are short and nervous.  Everyone is short silver, so the market can move violently higher when it turns.  When silver reverses, it will be the one that leads the market higher."

$-SILVER
 Bullish objective $ 118.00 
Resistance  $ 112.00 
Major Support  $ 60.00
 Bearish Objective  $ 58.00
Silver - with PF Targets  Technical Pattern  Bullish Wedge + PATTERN "X" = Buy! The price of physical silver.

  

Short-candle Chart comment
  • Jan 5, 2016: more bullish technicals - see the short candle.
  • Jan 4, 2017: fresh upleg + backtest completed
  • Jan 13, 2018: Screaming Buy
  • Jan 3, 2019: Will the overhead resistance be broken?
  • Jan 6 - Feb 4, 2020: Fresh upleg
  • Dec 2 - Jan 2, 2021: Bullish Flag = SCREAMING BUY
  • Jan 8: JPMorgan shorted more than a year of mining production.
  • Aug 9 - Apr. 6, 2022: SUPER-BUY - Targets are: $28 - $38 - $48
  • May 4 - July 12: The newly calculated Target 1 is $79  or +243%!
  • Oct. 1: Physical Silver costs 40% more than Paper Silver.
  • Nov. 5 - Dec. 3 - Jan. 7, 2023: Breakout and Buy.
  • Nov. 5 - Jan. 6, 2024: About to start the BIG UPLEG!?
  • Dec. 11 - Mar. 20,  2025: New upleg initiated.
  • May 11: Breaking out of the massive cup-and-handle formation.
  • Sep. 13 - 23 - Oct. 2: Target is $48
  • Jan. 1-24, 2026: Breaking up the top of the trend channel
  • Apr. 28: Bullish flag + consolidation on top of the trend channel.
  • June 6 - 17/25 - July 3: more correction and consolidation/accumulation and strongly oversold = STRONG BUY!
  • July 17 - July 23:  Last phase of the Backtest?  Mind the fresh "Pattern X" = extremely bullish.
  • Aug. 7-Sep. 5: Fresh bull run.
  • Sep. 17: Breaking out of a Bullish Wedge.
  • Oct. 2: We backtested, and the Bull Run should start now.
Long-term candle

The Bearish Triangle is now a Bullish Flag. This formation will propel Silver to about $88. That is after the $48 has been broken to the upside and tested.

Strong BUY Mind the explosive BB
Strong BUY (month LT)
Click to enlarge. The first chart was published in 2017. All charts are very bullish.

Silver expressed in Euros.

€-Silver
Bullish objective € 104.00
Resistance € 98.00
Support € 52.00
Bearish objective € 52.00
Technical pattern It's a bull trend.
 BEAR TRAP + PATTERN "X" = Buy!

Short-term candle
Chart comment
  • Jan 4, 2016: Silver should be the BIGGEST winner of 2016!
  • Jan 4-Feb 17, 2017: BULL RUN + backtest completed
  • Jan 13 - Apr 13, 2018: Screaming Buy: Mind the 2nd upleg
  • Jan 3, 2019: Will the overhead resistance be broken?
  • Dec 27 - Feb 4, 2020: Fresh upleg
  • Jan 2, 2021: Target is € 28, € 32
  • Jan 8: JPMorgan dumps more than a year's worth of mining production.
  • Aug 9 - July 12, 2022: SUPER-BUY! The target is €32
  • Nov. 5 - Dec. 3 - Jan. 7, 2023: Breakout and Buy.
  • Nov. 5 - Jan. 6, 2024: About to start the BIG UPLEG!?
  • Dec. 11 - Mar 20,  2025: New upleg initiated.
  • May 20 - July 23: fresh bull run - consolidation -  breakout and fresh bull run when €-Silver breaks the €34-35 level. €34 is a resistance level.
  • Jan. 1-24, 2026: breaking up the top of the trend channel.
  • Feb. 3-20: BOTTOM and STRONG BUY.
  • Apr. 1: Did you buy?
  • Apr. 28: Bullish Flag formation at the Top of the LT Trend.
  • June 6 - July 3: More consolidation/accumulation and strong BUY.
  • July 17:  Last phase of the Backtest?
  • July 23: Bear Trap + Pattern "X" = strong buy!
  • Aug. 7- Sep. 5: Fresh bull run.
  • Sep. 17: Breaking out of a Bullish Wedge.
  • Oct. 2: Backtest completed, and we expect a fresh bull run soon.
Long-term candle

Silver expressed in Swiss Francs.

  Bullish Objective FS 102
Resistance FS 82
Support FS 50
Bearish Objective FS 50
Technical pattern Bull trend
Bullish Wedge + Buy!

Short-term candle Chart comment
    • Jan 4, 2016: Silver should be the BIGGEST winner.
    • Jan 4-Feb 17, 2017: fresh upleg + backtest completed
    • Jan 13 - Apr 13, 2018: Screaming Buy
    • Jan 3, 2019: Will the overhead resistance be broken?
    • Dec 28 - Feb 4, 2020: The beginning of a new upleg.
    • Jan 2021: Target is FS 28 - FS 32
    • Aug 9 - July 12, 2022:  SUPER-BUY + target is FS 34
    • Oct. 1: Physical Silver costs 40% more than Paper Silver.
    • Nov. 5 - Dec. 3 - Jan. 7, 2023: Breakout and Buy.
    • Nov. 5 - Jan. 6, 2024: About to start the BIG UPLEG!?
    • Feb. 6 - Mar. 2: Powder Keg... we expect a major breakout before the end of April 2024.
    • Dec. 11 - Mar. 20,  2025: new upleg initiated.
    • Apr. 4: Corrections in bull markets are swift and violent.
    • May 20 - July 31: fresh bull run - consolidation - fresh bull run when FS-Silver breaks through the FS 31/oz.
    • Jan. 1 -24, 2026: breaking up the top of the trend channel.
    • Jan. 30: welcome correction... unseen candle chart and SUPPORT level...all because Powell gets fired??
    • Feb. 3-20: BOTTOM and STRONG BUY.
    • Apr. 28: Consolidation at the top of the trend channel.
    • June 6 - July 3: More consolidation/accumulation and strong BUY.
    • Jul. 17- 23:  Last phase of the Backtest + PATTERN "X"
    • Aug. 7- Sep. 5: Fresh bull run.
    • Sep. 17: Breaking out of a Bullish Wedge.
    • Oct. 2: Backtest completed - expect the fresh bull run soon.
Long-term candle

Only retarded investors don't get this! Investing is "NO CASINO"; this information is still valid, even in 2024.

€ Silver month CHF Silver month
The price goes up when time is up: Time is UP (Nov 2017 - Feb 2019)
Strong Buy. Strong Buy.

 

Strong Buy. Strong Buy.

A perfect technical picture we had. See the 2004 breakout out of a vast bullish triangle. Over the 20 years (1985/2004), the resistance line has become significant support. The first bull run ended in 2008, when Lehman Brothers collapsed, and we experienced substantial deleveraging. [Whether Lehman is to be blamed or not is another chapter.]

During the deleveraging, the BREAKOUT level tested positively (indicating a confirmed BULL TREND). After the test, silver geysers again reached the top of their long-term trend channel. Silver goes parabolic, or it consolidates sideways (I think the latter will happen).

For this reason, I expect Gold to outperform Silver this year. Silver is the poor man's gold. Silver will be strong if people are insecure and we keep relying on fiat paper money. We are experiencing a paradigm shift: what we are living through today is not the ordinary recession we have seen in previous cycles. By now, this should have become clear to most. The crisis calls for extraordinary measures and exceptional protection.

Silver is one way to protect your savings. It is a REAL ASSET, REAL MONEY. (The alternative is to buy Government bonds that yield nothing, keep your money in Bank accounts that produce nothing, or stack it under your mattress where it will be inflated away). Right now, Silver is in a congestion zone. The larger the zone, the larger the subsequent run.


Updated March 15, 2010

$-Silver objective for Wave II is $ 42,50 - €-Silver objective for Wave II is € 35: Silver has finished the 1st Wave cycle 1,2,3,4,5, and the subsequent ABC correction. Logically, it will reverse and start its Wave II cycle in the wake of the Gold Price. The objective is $ 42,50, or 5 times the low.

  • April story: Silver and Gold usually put in a bottom in March and a top in April. On March 18th, Gold made a bottom. If you miss the March bottom, you usually have to wait until summer to see a fresh buying opportunity.
  • Silver moving averages have now also confirmed their Golden Cross.
  • Gold and Silver mines are strong, indicating higher prices ahead for Gold and Silver. Several Gold and Silver stocks have broken above their 200-day moving average.

Updated December 20, 2008

Meanwhile, the “paper” silver price was recently nominally taken down from just above $20/oz. At around $13/oz, it is increasingly complex to find physical Silver at any price. If one can find it, one must pay approximately $4 over the spot price, i.e., around $17/oz, on average. Such is the ludicrous result of living in an Interventional Universe.

Manipulation?... At the very least, this is peculiar.

Last week, widely regarded silver analyst Ted Butler reported on recent developments during the July 1 1-August 5, 2008, period in the precious metals complex [specifically, open interest data in COMEX futures].

Butler’s work shows that as of July 1, 2008, two U.S. banks were short 6,199 contracts of COMEX silver (30,995,000 ounces). As of August 5, 2008, two U.S. banks were short 33,805 contracts of COMEX silver (169,025,000 ounces), an increase of more than fivefold. This is the largest position U.S. banks held in the data I found. Between July 14 and August 15, COMEX silver prices fell from a peak of $19.55 (basis September) to a low of $12.22, a 38% decline.

For gold, three U.S. banks held a short position of 7,787 contracts (778,700 ounces) in July and 86,398 contracts (8,639,800 ounces) in August, an eleven-fold increase that coincided with a decline of more than $150 per ounce. As with silver, this represents the largest short position ever held by U.S. banks, according to CFTC data. Click here for more.


Updated November 20, 2008 - Time to buy silver!


€ Silver bar monthly & daily charts-Will the Central banks really convince the Herd that it is better to keep Paper Fiat Money and Government bonds instead of Real Money? Do the markets erroneously think we are entering a cycle of deflation? Or is this a bear trap and an abnormal shakeout of the Bulls? Again, based on the fundamentals, I cannot imagine we have entered a bear market. The daily bar chart shows a nice reversal. Time to buy!

© - The report's contents may be copied, reproduced, or distributed without the written consent of Goldonomic, on the condition that there is a direct link to the Goldonomic site.


 

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