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Bonds USA

June 15, 2025 - Bonds sit in a bear trend; we continue to expect higher interest rates worldwide.


While the long bond is no longer a
flight-to-quality asset, gold is.  There
is now an awareness that the
long-term Treasury bond is not
a legitimate flight-to-quality asset.
It’s not responding to lower interest
rates, nor is it responding to the
current inflation rate of 2.5%,
which is likely to rise further.
 

            An accident waiting to happen—a time bomb: Interest rates will continue to rise, and if they don't, it will be because of a financial crash (Feb 2024)!

However, nothing goes up in a straight line, and the FED will try to keep the cost of DEBT artificially low for as long as possible.

The central banks of Europe and the Fed are coordinating their monetary policies. (April 2024)

Interest Rates LAG on the Inflation Rate: The more inflation there is, the higher the interest rates!
Hiking Interest Rates during recessions makes the Hyperinflationary Depression even worse.

Interest rates will continue to rise, even during the future more money creation (QE) regime, because they result from the price equation between supply and demand for money and credit.

The bond market has been showing a bear trend since 2011, and natural market forces have not taken over yet.IMPORTANT, however, is to understand that the impact on interest rates of QE is exponentially decreasing as the power of manipulation is also fading exponentially...

 
  • The soothsayers behind MMT (Modern Monetary Theory) will tell you that inflation and rates won’t rise as the central banks won’t let them. Like Santa Claus, that’s a very comforting thought. Unfortunately, natural bond market forces rather than unnatural central bankers ultimately get the last say (and dark laugh) regarding rising rates. With over $18T worth of negative-yielding bonds in circulation and public debt soon passing $30T and climbing, it’s only a matter of time and headlines before someone yells “fire” in a crowded bond theater whose exit door (i.e., liquidity) is the size of a mouse hole. With little to no yield for over-bought risk, bondholders will eventually become bond sellers, and when bonds sell off, their prices tank, and hence their yields skyrocket. Of course, when yields skyrocket, rates spike — and the system collapses.
  • In the case of the virtually bankrupt US empire, we are not talking about a six-pence deficit, but instead about a debt growing exponentially, now by several trillion dollars annually. (Nov. 2024)

    History doesn’t just rhyme, but it repeats itself over and over and over again. 

 

As Seen in History - what happened in Greece (and Turkey, and Venezuela) is a perfect example of what is to happen with other Treasury Bonds: when the bubble bursts, most of the time, it's too late to act - Five past twelve to move out of Fixed-interest instruments & financial instruments based on bonds (incl. TAK and other bank manufactured products) and into Real Assets (incl shares but excl. Real Estate and ex. financial shares, pension funds, (re)-insurance co's).  This wholly MANIPULATED market will be the coffin of many Fortunes...Treasuries = Credit Default Swaps = Bank-manufactured products = saving accounts = bank deposits;  what good does it do to be safe when, on day 1001, you are slaughtered!?.


Interest Rate is the derivative of Money Supply...it is impossible to regulate the economy by RIGGING the interest rates (like Central banks try today).

The Bond market is one BIG Bubble and a BEAR TREND...A DRAMA will unfold if Central Banks reverse QE...and Central Banks have decided on QE4...

  • Interest rates are bottoming out (2020), so be cautious of the marginal maximum interest rate levels... click here for more: Bond Fundamentals III.


ʘ ʘ ʘ 30-year US Treasuries: a bear trend it is!


30-year US-Treasury Bond price
Bullish Objective We have "4" historic tops and a bubble!....
Resistance 128
Support 108
Bearish Objective 68
Technical pattern SOLID BEAR TREND

 

Short-term candle Chart comment
  • Feb 10, 2015: NEW ALL-TIME HIGH. Unbelievably dangerous!
  • Jan 26, 2016: more TOP building
  • Jan 20 - Feb 22, 2017: the trend is reversing DOWN.
  • Jan 17, 2018: If the 30-year yield rises and stays above 3.05 %, it'll break up, marking a Trend Reversal.
  • Jan 30 - Feb 25, 2019: running in resistance
  • Dec 4 - Jan 16, 2020: It is impossible to time the coming Bond crash
  • Jan 22 - Feb. 18, 2021: OVERSOLD - expect lower interest rates.
  • Sep. 2 - Jan. 18, 2022: Interest Rates will be artificially kept low until the TIME BOMB (Hyperinflation) explodes.
  • Apr. 29: a STOP LOSS and a mature Double Top formation.
  • Aug. 27: Oversold...up to higher interest rates!
  • Sep. 28 - Dec. 15 - Feb. 5, 2023: BEAR TREND.
  • Mar. 15 - July 15: Expect lower bonds or higher interest rates!
  • Nov. 28 - Dec. 26 - Feb. 24, 2024: End of Backtest + bouncing into Resistance + overbought = expect lower or higher interest rates.
  • Apr. 1 - Apr. 23 - June 9: expect higher interest rates.
  • July 9 - August 26: correction. Nothing comes down in a straight line!
  • Sep. 22: end of correction !?
  • Nov. 6 - Dec. 5 - Mar 25 - June 15, 2025: Lower, we shall see.
Long-term candle

ʘ ʘ ʘ 30-year US Treasuries Yield - % - a Solid BULL trend!

Short-term Candle Chart comment
TYX candle1  
  • Jan 26, 2016: Bottom!
  • Mar 1 - Aug 31: Brace for negative interest rates!
  • Jan 20, 2017: The trend is reversing; expect HIGHER interest rates.
  • Jan 17, 2018: reversal is confirmed once 3.05% is broken and holds.
  • Oct 5 - Jan 30, 2019: Strong Resistance
  • Aug 26 - Jan 22. 2021: Interest rates are frozen until 2024.
  • Sep. 2 - Feb. 22, 2022: trend remains DOWN = lower interest rates!
  • Aug 28: Oversold + running into a resistance zone = points to LOWER interest rates = Caution.
  • Sep. 28: Bull Trend - expect Higher Interest Rates.....we have a Breakout and Trend Reversal!
  • Nov. 8 - Feb. 5, 2023: HIGHER interest rates are now the trend.
  • Oct. 22: This confirms the American DEBT is now rising exponentially.
  • Nov. 28: Oversold and bouncing up the support level = expect higher interest rates.
  • Dec. 26 - Feb. 24, 2024: Normal Correction.
  • Apr. 1: Expect higher interest rates.
  • June 9:  The primary TREND is UP!
  • July 9 - Aug. 26: Correction & running into resistance.
  • Sep. 22: end of correction !?
  • Nov. 6 - Dec. 5  - Mar. 25 - Apr. 25: 2025: Higher, we shall see.
  • May 25: Target is 7.20%
  • June 15: The medium-term target is 26%
Long-term Candle
TYX candle2


ʘ ʘ ʘ 10-year US Treasuries.

10-Year Treasury Bonds: A Bull Horn, broadening action suggests that a market is OUT of CONTROL!

 Short-Candle  Comment
  • Nov. 8: We had a TOP and a Breakdown, which is now oversold. Expect a minor correction. The trend remains STRONGLY BEARISH!
  • Dec. 15 - Feb. 5, 2023: Expect lower interest rates after the correction, or expect HIGHER interest rates.
  • Mar. 15 - July 15: HIGHER interest rate trend remains intact.
  • Aug. 22 - Sep. 15: Oversold but still a bear trend and higher interest rates.
  • Oct. 22: A solid BEAR trend remains!
  • Nov. 28 - Dec. 26 - Feb. 24, 2024: End of Backtest + bouncing into Resistance + overbought = expect higher interest rates.
  • June 9: Shall we see a correction before the 2024 elections?
  • July 9 - Aug. 26: Correction & running into resistance.
  • Sep. 22: end of correction !?
  • Nov. 6 - Dec. 6 - Feb. 13 - May 26, 2025: Lower, we shall see.
Long-Candle 

ʘ ʘ ʘ 10-year US Treasury yield: Target is 7%

Short Candle Comment
TNX candle1
  • Jan 17, 2018: The 10-year yield has already broken the downtrend.
  • Dec 21 - Feb 25, 2019: NO BREAKOUT....and running into support
  • July 3: up to ZERO and Negative Interest Rates...
  • Aug 26 - Feb 26, 2020: a deja vu of 2008?! Yes, but worse.
  • July 21: STOP LOSS and PANIC MODE are still ON.
  • Aug 19 - Jan 22, 2021: Interest rates are frozen until 2024. (says the FED)
  • Jan. 8 - May 25, 2022: OVERBOUGHT or Interest rates should edge lower..
  • Sep. 28: BREAKOUT and Bull Trend.
  • Nov. 8 - Dec. 15 - Feb. 5, 2023: Bull Trend = higher interest rates + higher Gold.
  • Mar. 15 - Sep. 15: expect HIGHER interest rates.
  • Oct. 22: Strong uptrend pointing to the exponential growth of the American debt.
  • Nov. 28: Oversold and bouncing up the support level = expect higher interest rates.
  • Dec. 26 - Feb. 24, 2024: Correction still maturing.
  • Apr. 1 - June 9: higher interest rates we shall have.
  • July 9 - Aug. 26: Correction/Backtest & running into resistance.
  • Sep. 22: end of correction !?
  • Nov. 6 - Dec. 6 - Feb. 13 - June 15, 2025: Higher, we shall see.
Long Candle
TNX candle2


ʘ ʘ ʘ
- Municipal bonds are now also bought by Central Banks (FED).

The Federal Reserve, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency changed the liquidity requirements for the nation's largest banks. Municipal bonds, long considered safe liquid investments, have been eliminated from the list of high-quality liquid collateral. Assets. That means banks that are the largest holders will have to dump them in favor of the Treasuries and corporate bonds that satisfy the requirement.

  • March 2016: Less than a week after the ECB’s announcement and months before it is to buy any bonds, a new record for a euro-denominated corporate bond issue was set on Wednesday when brewer Anheuser-Busch InBev said it was seeking to raise 13.25 billion euros ($14.9 billion).
  • Credit analysts at Dutch bank ING wrote to clients, “In our view, this highlights the current positive backdrop for primary issuance induced by the ECB’s new easing measures, " particularly the new corporate bond program.
  • The corporate debt market has benefited indirectly as the ECB's purchases of government bonds have pushed investors into the corporate market, lowering borrowing rates. In addition to the corporate bond purchases, the ECB also announced a program to pay banks if they step up their lending effectively earlier this month.

Short-term candle   Chart comments
  • November 19 - March 15, 2015: DANGEROUS CLIMAX TOP...
  • April 26: Municipalities are going belly up, but bonds are at an all-time high. Is something wrong here?
  • Dec 17: We finally have this HISTORIC TOP of the 35-year cycle.
  • Jan 26, 2016: HISTORIC TOP of the 35-year cycle.
  • Mar 1 -  Aug 31: We will see NEGATIVE interest rates.
  • Jan 17, 2018: ???
  • Jan 30 - Feb 25, 2019: ??? - back to a historic TOP!?
  • April 1 - May 6: yes...up to the historic top!
  • Dec 4 - Feb 26, 2020: Madness
  • April 22 - Sept 25: Holding Municipal bonds = financial suicide!
  • Oct 26 - Jan. 8,  2022: FROZEN, but still very dangerous!
  • Mar. 22: a Bear Trap of a Trend Reversal?!!
  • Apr. 29 - July 8: This looks like a TOP!
  • Sep. 28: Stop Loss and Bear Trend initiated.
  • Nov. 8 - Feb. 5, 2023: Bear Trend is confirmed: expect higher interest rates!
  • Mar. 15 - Sep. 15: expect LOWER municipal bonds and HIGHER interest rates.
  • Oct. 22 - Nov. 28 - Dec. 26 - Feb. 24, 2024: breaking down its top.
  • Apr. 1: We shall have higher interest rates.
  • June 9: SIDEWARD.
  • July 9 - Aug. 26: running into resistance
  • Sep. 22: end of correction?
  • Nov. 6: Lower, we shall see.
  • Dec. 6: Bull Trap.
  • Feb. 13 - Mar. 22 - June 15, 2025: The lower we see, the higher interest rates will be.
 Long-term candle


ʘ ʘ ʘ  - TBT is an instrument for shorting Bonds.

 This is a manufactured financial instrument to SHORT bonds (we don't like it!)
 
Short-term Candle  Comment
  • 10 June 2015: bouncing off the bottom of the trend channel - breaking the 200-day Moving Average (see short candle)
  • Jan 26, 2016: no BOTTOM
  • Jan 20, 2017: but the trend is reversing...
  • Jan 17, 2018: ???
  • Jan 30 - Feb 25, 2019: bouncing up support
  • May 6 - August 19, 2020: more bottom formation
  • Dec 2 - May 27, 2021: FROZEN
  • June 27 - August 2: We may have the beginning of a BREAKOUT, which points to higher interest rates.
  • Sep 2 - Jan. 8, 2022: Dangerous BULLISH formation points to HIGHER interest rates.
  • Mar. 22: Breakout
  • Nov. 8: Breakout confirmed = expect HIGHER INTEREST RATES!
  • Dec. 15 - Feb. 5, 2023: end of Backtest = expect higher interest rates.
  • July 15: Breakout!
  • Aug. 22 - Sept. 15: end of backtest
  • Oct. 22 - Nov. 28: A solid uptrend is evident, indicating lower bond prices and higher interest rates.
  • Dec. 26 - Feb. 24, 2024: Correction.
  • Apr. 1 - June 9: higher interest rates we shall have.
  • Aug. 26 - Sep. 22 - Dec. 6 - June 15, 2025: end of correction...indicates HIGHER interest rates...
Long-term Candle

Vanguard Total Bond Market: STOP LOSS & Backtest done = expect LOWER bonds and HIGHER INTEREST RATES. (May 2023)
High-Yield Corporate Bond:  INSANE!

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