Bonds USA
June 15, 2025 - Bonds sit in a bear trend; we continue to expect higher interest rates worldwide.
 While the long bond is no longer a flight-to-quality asset, gold is. There is now an awareness that the long-term Treasury bond is not a legitimate flight-to-quality asset. It’s not responding to lower interest rates, nor is it responding to the current inflation rate of 2.5%, which is likely to rise further. |
An accident waiting to happen—a time bomb: Interest rates will continue to rise, and if they don't, it will be because of a financial crash (Feb 2024)! However, nothing goes up in a straight line, and the FED will try to keep the cost of DEBT artificially low for as long as possible. The central banks of Europe and the Fed are coordinating their monetary policies. (April 2024) Interest rates will continue to rise, even during the future more money creation (QE) regime, because they result from the price equation between supply and demand for money and credit. The bond market has been showing a bear trend since 2011, and natural market forces have not taken over yet.IMPORTANT, however, is to understand that the impact on interest rates of QE is exponentially decreasing as the power of manipulation is also fading exponentially... |
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As Seen in History - what happened in Greece (and Turkey, and Venezuela) is a perfect example of what is to happen with other Treasury Bonds: when the bubble bursts, most of the time, it's too late to act - Five past twelve to move out of Fixed-interest instruments & financial instruments based on bonds (incl. TAK and other bank manufactured products) and into Real Assets (incl shares but excl. Real Estate and ex. financial shares, pension funds, (re)-insurance co's). This wholly MANIPULATED market will be the coffin of many Fortunes...Treasuries = Credit Default Swaps = Bank-manufactured products = saving accounts = bank deposits; what good does it do to be safe when, on day 1001, you are slaughtered!?.
| Interest Rate is the derivative of Money Supply...it is impossible to regulate the economy by RIGGING the interest rates (like Central banks try today). |
The Bond market is one BIG Bubble and a BEAR TREND...A DRAMA will unfold if Central Banks reverse QE...and Central Banks have decided on QE4...
- Interest rates are bottoming out (2020), so be cautious of the marginal maximum interest rate levels... click here for more: Bond Fundamentals III.
ʘ ʘ ʘ 30-year US Treasuries: a bear trend it is!
| 30-year US-Treasury Bond price | |
| Bullish Objective | We have "4" historic tops and a bubble!.... |
| Resistance | 128 |
| Support | 108 |
| Bearish Objective | 68 |
| Technical pattern | SOLID BEAR TREND |
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ʘ ʘ ʘ 30-year US Treasuries Yield - % - a Solid BULL trend!
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ʘ ʘ ʘ 10-year US Treasuries.
10-Year Treasury Bonds: A Bull Horn, broadening action suggests that a market is OUT of CONTROL!
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ʘ ʘ ʘ 10-year US Treasury yield: Target is 7%
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ʘ ʘ ʘ - Municipal bonds are now also bought by Central Banks (FED).
| The Federal Reserve, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency changed the liquidity requirements for the nation's largest banks. Municipal bonds, long considered safe liquid investments, have been eliminated from the list of high-quality liquid collateral. Assets. That means banks that are the largest holders will have to dump them in favor of the Treasuries and corporate bonds that satisfy the requirement. |
- March 2016: Less than a week after the ECB’s announcement and months before it is to buy any bonds, a new record for a euro-denominated corporate bond issue was set on Wednesday when brewer Anheuser-Busch InBev said it was seeking to raise 13.25 billion euros ($14.9 billion).
- Credit analysts at Dutch bank ING wrote to clients, “In our view, this highlights the current positive backdrop for primary issuance induced by the ECB’s new easing measures, " particularly the new corporate bond program.
- The corporate debt market has benefited indirectly as the ECB's purchases of government bonds have pushed investors into the corporate market, lowering borrowing rates. In addition to the corporate bond purchases, the ECB also announced a program to pay banks if they step up their lending effectively earlier this month.
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ʘ ʘ ʘ - TBT is an instrument for shorting Bonds.
| This is a manufactured financial instrument to SHORT bonds (we don't like it!) | |
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| Vanguard Total Bond Market: STOP LOSS & Backtest done = expect LOWER bonds and HIGHER INTEREST RATES. (May 2023) |
High-Yield Corporate Bond: INSANE! |
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