(hyper) Inflation & LOCG
HOCG = High order Capital Goods (real estate, machinery).
LOCG = Low Order Consumer Goods (energy, food)
Hyperinflation is caused not by facts but by an intangible: the sudden realization of what had been there all along but hadn't been recognized. Today, inflation is rising slower because the velocity of the growing money supply is momentarily decreasing. This is a normal phenomenon in an inflation and hyperinflation cycle. On April 15, some talking heads pretend the US has fallen into Deflation, and the UK is to follow. This happens because they do not understand what Inflation, Deflation, and Hyperinflation is.
It is important to UNDERSTAND that a hyperinflationary depression sees simultaneously falling prices (HOCG) and rising prices (LOCG). [HOCG = high-order capital goods (e.g., Real Estate)—LOCG = Low-Order Consumer Goods (e.g., energy and food).
The most challenging concept for the professional public to understand is that hyperinflation and a disastrous economic environment can exist. Hyperinflation falls flat because it fails to consider the infinite velocity of money that a Weimar creates during a depression economy as a product of throwing monetary discipline at the wall.
Prices = Money Supply x Velocity of the money
Basically, there are three inflation fazes:
- In the first phase, people spend less as goods and services costs increase. They save because they 'think' prices will come down again. The velocity (the speed at which money is spent) decreases. Such a situation is possible because of the ignorance of people trusting the authorities. (Today, people can hardly save more; there is too much debt!)
- In the second phase, people recognize Inflation. After some denial, they become aware that the cost of goods and services won't come down again. Velocity goes up again.
- As soon as people understand that the cost of goods and services will continue to increase, they lose faith in Fiat Money and prefer to hold goods instead of op paper money (Gresham's law). Velocity increases dramatically. We have runaway hyperinflation.
Examples of inflation phase - Argentina - click to enlarge. | |
CPI - inflation index | Money supply |
- The expansion of the Money Supply in the Western world has been explosive [this is the least one can say]. Yesterday, the G20 agreed to expand it by another 5 TRILLION dollars. Contrary to the 1930s (Great Depression) in the USA, the opposite happened. Only Germany did the same as it is doing today, and the policy resulted in the Weimar hyperinflation.
- The lesson? Whatever the authorities do, once the economy and financial system have been violated (and they have), they snap. It does so because the system becomes more unstable. It starts to rock more and more until something snaps, and it crashes.
- NO FINANCIAL SYSTEM has survived FRACTIONAL RESERVE BANKING (usury) and the creation of FIAT PAPER MONEY out of thin air EVER. Such a thing is simply impossible.
- Hyperinflation ALSO results in parabolic rising stock markets (Zimbabwe) as people apply Gresham's law: the bad money chases the good and exchanges Fiat paper for Equities which are participations in REAL ASSETS.
The velocity of Money is still negative. Hyperinflation will start once this trend reverses.... as it did in Argentina.
To stop inflation, they should stop Fractional Reserve Banking and the creation of Fiat Money.
Price increase of LOCG y/y | One year | 3 years * |
Steel | 40% to 70% | 150% |
Chemicals | 25% | 75% |
Shipping costs | 375% | |
Crude oil | 43% | 129% |
Ethanol | 21% | 63% |
Heating oil | 44% | 132% |
Natural gas | 77% | 231% |
Unleaded gas | 40% | 120% |
Corn | 60% | 180% |
Soybeans | 26% | 78% |
Aluminum | 35% | 105% |
Copper | 26% | 78% |
* extrapolated over three years | ||
Price decrease of HOCG | ||
Real Estate | -20% to -60% |
The Calendar of Modern Hyperinflations:
For the moron financial TV hosts claiming that significant inflation is well down the road because inflation requires a business recovery to occur:
Angola 1991-1999
Bosnia – Herzegovina 1992 – 1993
Chile 1971 – 1981
Greece 1943 – 1953 At the high point, prices doubled every 28 hours. Greek inflation reached a rate of %8.5 billion per month.
Israel 1971 – 1985 (price controls instituted)
Japan 1934 – 1951
Romania 1998 – 2006
Turkey 1990 – 2001
USA 1773 – not worth a Continental
Yugoslavia 1989 – 1994
Zaire 1989 – present (now the Congo)
Zimbabwe – 2000 to present. November of 2008 – inflation rate of 516 quintillion percent
Venezuela, Ukraine (44% in Dec 2015), Iran,...
From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weimar Republic
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