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Archives for March 2010

Wednesday March 31, 2010

  • Ireland: triple (+1,50%) mortgage rise as taxpayers bail out AIB. This lies completely in the line of what we are expecting. Interest and mortgage rates will rise first in those countries with weaker economies and further impact real estate prices.

  • The Dollar had a free ride on the back of the European problems...but the pendulum is about to swing in the opposite direction. Forex markets often behave like brainless sheep...and can swiftly change direction when a so said believable source published a different kind of news: JP Morgan says California is of greater danger than Greece. And true it is...click here for more...

  • Gene Arensberg's new "Got Gold Report," excerpted from Brien Lundin's Gold Newsletter, reports that the big commercial traders are starting to cover short positions in gold. Arensberg also expresses great satisfaction with last week's hearing on metals trading by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. He writes that GATA's disclosure of whistleblower Andrew Maguire's correspondence with the CFTC stole the show.

Tuesday March 30, 2010 - watch out for the reverse clockwork once the Dollar weakens!

  • Don't forget Crude Oil and Oil shares. The sideward and positive consolidation/accumulation tells us the bull market is still alive. The Oil sector will (as usual) only come in the spotlight once it starts its upward action...click here for more...

  • Natural Gas is running into huge support and is strongly oversold...click here...

  • Sorry to disappoint many Britons but the Pound Sterling is not ready to recover against the Euro...best case scenario we will see a weaker Dollar.

Monday March 29, 2010 - Markets are slowing down in expectation of Eastern (next Sunday).

  • France will over the next couple of years probably become a huge bad surprise and Spain is not doing well either. While the Spanish real estate park has (at least in some areas) been modernized as the Real Estate bubble was inflated such was not the case in France. Southern France is picturesque but apart from wineries and agriculture it has no industry left whatsoever...click here for more... The more regulation a country has the harder and the longer it will take to adjust to the depression and hence the more damage will be made.

  • North African countries tried it and saw it did not work. Congested traffic, inadequate roads, expensive/poor or no parking space, slow traffic, high cost of liquid energy, toll roads, excessive automobile regulation, poor and/or expensive means of communication (Internet, mobile phone systems) all slow down the economic activity and increase its operating cost. [1990 Casablanca (Morocco) already had "Roundabouts" in today's style. Such are cheaper than traffic lights but are also choking traffic].

  • The Dollar is finally correcting and last Friday we had a Bearish Key reversal...click here...

  • The candle chart of the Bank index shows a technical reversal pattern...click here

Saturday March 27, 2010

  • World Stock markets are overbought. We have clear indications a correction is imminent. If the correlation mechanism is correct, expect the financial clockwork to reverse its action. Stock markets will come down together with the US Dollar, the Euro will strengthen and so will Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, Copper (copper has built an schoolbook technical pattern)

  • The 30 year Treasury Bonds and the British Gilts are dangerously close to break through their support line...click here

Friday March 26, 2010

  • The HUI (Gold bugs index) hasn't broken its bull trend....click here...

  • SA Banks cut prime lending rates. Commercial banks FNB, Nedbank, Standard Bank as well as Absa have all announced they will cut their prime lending rates by 0.5% from 10.5% to 10%.

  • Real Estate is a dead duck and it will take until 2033 until we see the bottom!

Real Estate is a High order capital good and during a recession/depression it behaves in a completely different way than Low Order Consumer goods.

A compete Real Estate cycle takes 76 years before completion: prices go up during 50 years and come down for 26 years. The next bottom is expected in 2033. Important is to understand the depression reduces the demand for real estate and that it always takes a certain time before sufficient capital is saved which will create fresh demand for RE. 

The 1st part of the down leg is characterized by denial. People are incorrectly convinced the deflating bubble is just one of the small cyclical dips they experienced during the bull cycle. Expressed in nominal terms it is not sure the top of a future boom will be higher than the top of the previous cycle. Rents typically come down in sequence. The move over supply crated during the time the bubble was inflated, the more rents come down during the bust (because of the abundant supply)


  • A lot of noise, volatility but no trend change for Gold and Silver, nor for the Euro/Dollar. Your emotions and what the brainless talking heads are trying to make you believe are dangerous for the health of your savings.

  • Today is Friday and 4 more banks were closed down in the USA:   Desert Hills Bank, Phoenix, AZ Unity National Bank, Cartersville, GA Key West Bank, Key West, FL  McIntosh Commercial Bank, Carrolton, GA

  • The push back of Gold above the $1,100 level and back into the former trading range between $1,130 on the top and $1,100 on the bottom is friendly as it indicates that bears were either unable to press the market down much lower after it bounced into the lower limit of the triangle.

Thursday March 25, 2010

The real canaries in the coalmines:

They were an early warning of carbon monoxide gas which was a silent killer being odorless. Miners who died from this exhibited the characteristic cherry red colored skin caused by the CO forming a strong bond to the hemoglobin in the blood & thus leaving it unable to carry the oxygen necessary for life. At school in a mining valley in Wales in the sixties, our chemistry teacher, who had worked underground, told us haunting details like these which have stayed with me much longer than the chemistry has. The methane in the mines, known as 'fire damp' was an explosion risk and it was these explosions that caused most large scale mine disasters up until the National Coal Board was formed and started spending money on mine safety."

  • It is not a question of will long-dated bond yields rise? Instead, it is a question of when will they rise? The slide of US-BONDS over the last couple of days really starts to be scary....and these are the canaries in the mine shaft for HYPERINFLATION.

  • The Euro breaks below the psychological $1.35 and a countermanding upward dynamic would now be required to question scope some additional downside. Having said this, the weakness of the Euro is not really a problem for our subscribers who were informed (Investment roster) that the Aussie, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc and South-African Rand were better off.

  • Politicians must understand it is absolutely impossible to reflate the Real Estate bubble. Whatever is said and written, the bubble is and will be deflating until 2033...click here for more...

  • Only in South Africa - The Return of the 100% home loan. Banks are again giving mortgages without requiring a deposit, with Absa even prepared to fund 110% of a property's price.

  • Gold still sits in a Bull run and we expect that it will glitter again soon...click here... GLD (the Gold ETF) gave a nice signal today. And $-Silver has also fallen back on the bottom of its triangle.

  • China and the United States may be on a collision course over Beijing’s insistence that it will not allow the value of the Renminbi (RMB) to rise. Off course not. They would be idiots to do so. Chinese know this is a game of WORTHLESS FIAT money and the know that the WEST (Europe and the US) are reading Karl Marx. Now that the world manufacturing unit has been moved to China because of stupid western politics, they will anything in their power to keep it under their control.

  • Health care or more Karl Marx: With the passage of the legislation allowing the federal government to take control of the medical care system of the United States, a major turning point has been reached in the dismantling of the values and institutions of America. Health care will become a massive transfer of crucial decisions from millions of doctors and patients to Washington bureaucrats.

  • Scary and unbelievable so many people still 'BELIEVE' the economy is going to repair itself!? Such is impossible as long as unemployment keeps rising and we have a consumer driven economy. Try telling that to the “Dollar is a safe haven” crowd. The financial difficulties that the states, counties and municipalities are experiencing is sooner rather than later going to become an issue for the Dollar to contend with. If that were not enough, the amount of indebtedness that the US has now incurred is mathematically impossible to repay without a currency devaluation. The British Pound has always been the Canary in the mineshaft for the US dollar and this time won't be different! Also the CDS (Credit Default Swap) market is telling a different story...click here...

Wednesday March 24, 2010 - Trading ranges all over - Price will go up when time has come = patience!

  • The FPigs are barely alive. (add France) After Greece Fitch Ratings agency says it has downgraded Portugal's sovereign debt by one notch and this has off course an impact on the Dollar/Euro. Expect to see this happening over and over again all over the Western World both in Europe and in the USA...Jim's formula is alive and well and last year we already warned about this problem. The logic result of this indebtedness will be a crash on the Bond markets. The most dangerous part of the non-American Reserve/Treasury bank holdings is the US dollar. \

  • Gold, Silver, Gold and Silver mines, the Dollar and the Euro are confined to their trading zones. The Euro continues to hover precipitously above major chart support below the 1.35 level. It has been holding with the result that the Dollar cannot muster enough upside strength to take out 81.50 on the Dollar index. This range bound activity in the Forex markets has been affecting gold which while higher today, is still effectively contained in a range as well. Euro gold remains very firm holding above the €800 level. Gold priced in British Pound terms is also strong holding above the €700 level. Crude oil is stuck between $83 on the upside and $79 on the downside and similar conditions occur for Copper. Platinum and Palladium continue to make new highs.

  • The Swiss franc surges to a record against the Euro but is really not worth a cent more...check Gold expressed in Swiss Franc and you will see for yourself...click here...

  • Sooner of later the EU will fall apart and it will be good for Europe. Likewise the USA will fall apart like the USSR did in 1989 and it will be good for the Americans.

  • In the fiat money era all governments are currency manipulators at some point, usually via excessive printing and periodic jawboning. By excessive printing they create the very demand for Real Assets (Low order consumer goods only) and barbaric Gold and Silver. Volatility is increasing but as long as we do not have a clear indication of a trend reversal on the Euro/Dollar we won't change our opinion. Having said this, it is now more than ever extremely important to watch the relationship between all Fiat currencies and Barbaric Gold. For the same reason it is also extremely important you DON'T act without making your home work first.

  • Our candle chart for 30 year US Bonds shows a completed formation and a break-down gap...click here...

  • Bank and Financial shares are heavily weighted in most stock market indexes and the Bank Index is not only overbought but also running into resistance. Better be careful!

  • Who cares the Euro is somewhat weaker as long as €-Gold stays in its bull run!

Tuesday March 23, 2010 - The world has become a big circus and the politicians are the best paid clowns!...but the people start to revolt and in the end the politicians will pay a high price for their mismanagement.

  • Obama signs massive health care bill and it seems that the politicians will finally succeed in controlling the second biggest sector in the USA (the largest being Defense). At the same time 12 states are filing lawsuits against the mandatory insurance. Important for non American readers is to know that overseas the US Health Care bill is pictured in a completely different (and often incorrect)  way it is pictured in the USA...click here for more...  It's going to be great for the uninsured...like XMas...You know, no worry about the Health care bills... Next comes the US money machine of Global Warming or will they notice what is happening in France where President Nicolas Sarkozy Tuesday scrapped the country's proposed carbon tax...click here for more...

  • World Stock markets are an example by excellence that there is a disconnect between the fundamentals and the markets in a similar way we had a disconnect between the economy in Zimbabwe and the local economy. Equities are REAL ASSETS and a lot safer than Fiat Paper money and Bonds which are nothing else but an option to buy fiat paper money.

  • Any investor buying Bonds must be aware he's buying an investment vehicle at  record levels in a same way real estate investors were buying houses at record levels in 2006. Bonds are just like Fiat Paper money not even worth the ink and the paper they have been printed on and their quantity is being multiplied daily by hitting ENTER.! The day Bonds break through there neckline part of the Herd will be killed as it will scramble to get out at the same time through a gate which is way too small.

Monday March 22, 2010 - The World is round but only those which have traveled around it know this for sure. All others can do nothing else but 'believe' what is being told...

It is mind boggling that so many people just 'believe' whatever is said by the talking heads which very often have never traveled around the world themselves. Static never stops....and this is one of the reasons for today's volatile markets. Intra day and short term fluctuations most of the time resemble to a Casino where luck decides about your loss or profit instead of Brains. The fundamental forces behind the price of Gold, Silver, Equities, Bonds and Fiat Forex however don't change overnight.  Timing is the most difficult part of investing for most of the time all actors have been in place before a 'fait divers' make it all happen. 

Friday March 19, 2010 -

Inflationism is a slippery road – the road to hyperinflation. The inflationist Bernanke Fed behaves as if they would not be “dialling back” from Quantitative Easing any time soon. They talk the talk, but can’t walk the walk. The inflationary genie is out of the bottle. Taming it back will result in a crushing deflationary collapse. The Fed will never let this happen again. They did it once during the Great Depression, they won’t do it again.

The economic crisis is well under way. However, there are major differences in predicting how the crisis will end. Yes, “under way”, because most people still think that we will be soon coming out of the crisis, may be even within a couple of months. Economic philosophizers still prognosticate that the economic boom is about re-emerge. Many in the Establishment even declare that the crisis is over. They forecast business as usual – the resurrection of the consumption-based economy, only if the banks were to start loaning again. Unfortunately, this will be impossible.

(Krassimir Petrov)

The longer the accumulation lasts, the stronger the bull and bear run once it breaks out of the trading zone! Price will go up or come down when the time has come (Gann)

  • Gold (but also silver and the Dollar/Euro) is stuck in a range trade with a bit of a higher bias to it as downside support thus far remains firm with the upside continuing to be capped by bullion bank selling at or near $1,130.

  • The Dollar which is stuck in a range but cannot seem to muster any enthusiasm for a downside breakout. Every single time it moves into the zone near and just below the 80 level, the volume dries up indicating that the trade simply does not want to take it lower.

  • Gold and Silver mines are following exactly the same pattern...click here for more...

  • Today is Friday and only 7 American banks had to close down...but "all is well Mme le Marquise"!   State Bank of Aurora, Aurora, MN,  First Lowndes Bank, Fort Deposit, AL , Bank of Hiawassee, Hiawassee, GA
     Appalachian Community Bank, Ellijay, GA , Advanta Bank Corp., Draper, UT , Century Security Bank, Duluth, GA
    American National Bank, Parma, OH

  • The Pendulum is hovering over the EU. After Greece, expect Spain and Portugal to hit the front pages. In the mean time California, Massachusetts, Illinois, Ohio, North Carolina, New York and 34 other American states receive some kind of relief...

  • In California foreclosures are up 29% and Florida courts are choking with foreclosure cases and Florida courts request $ 9.6 million just to help to cleanse the system...click here...

  • And the Reserve Bank of India also rises interest rates. The direction for interest rates has been set and UP it is!...click here...

Thursday March 18, 2010.

  • We know why we don't like bank shares: March 17 (Bloomberg) -- Deutsche Bank AG, JPMorgan Chase & Co., UBS AG and Hypo Real Estate Holding AG’s Depfa Bank Plc unit were charged with fraud linked to the sale of derivatives to the City of Milan...click here for the details...

  • What we wrote about the Dollar months ago still applies and over the past weeks the fundamentals moved even more against the 'Dead Dollar Walking'.  The Central banks will continue to do all within their power to keep the mirrors and the smoke curtains up to avoid the Herd sees the Emperor has no clothes. They always have and always will (prior to the forced introduction of the Euro I lived this scenario multiple times). The big advantage is that it gives the Intelligent Investor more time to protect his savings...and he'd better wisely use this time for once the trap closes, there will be no mercy.

  • What we wrote about the Dollar we also wrote for months about the British Pound before the 30% de facto devaluation came into effect. Only the Intelligent Investors were able to escape a 30% cut of their net worth. Those who stayed invested in Real Estate are stuck and will loose even more...Real Estate is just the wrong kind of Real Assets (High Order Capital Goods).

  • It's all for your safety! You don't realize how much Government loves you: Body scanners at airports, speed limits on the roads, control of your bank operations to ensure you don't get polluted by money laundry, taxation for social security so you will be able to survive when your old (social security and pension funds are empty), digitalization of securities (so your physical bonds, equities and other valuable don't get stolen or lost in case your home burns down).  A poll shows 89% of the Belgian population has lost trust in the Belgian politicians. The remaining 17% are probably the politicians self.

Wednesday March 17, 2010

  • The wild card remains the Middle-East, Pakistan and Afghanistan and there is no doubt something dangerous is brewing. The US is making preparations for a pre-emptive strike on Iran or some other Eastern destination. Although one would doubt that the US would 'go it alone,' one has to question whether or not they would act in support of a pre-emptive strike by Israel on Iranian nuclear facilities. Although this news piece assumes Iran is the target, other easterly destinations come to mind in the vicinity of Afghanistan. The implications of such a strike on the world financial and commodity markets is obvious, and bears careful watching. I would doubt the US would circumvent a discussion at the United Nations. Even George W had to at least pay lip service to international support prior to his attack on Iraq. [Jesse's Cafe Amèricain]

  • Crude Oil expressed in Euro is confirming the move of Crude Oil expressed in Dollar...click here..

  • Excellent behavior of Gold and Silver as they bounce of their 50 day Moving Average.

  • Bonds are dangerously hovering around their neck and/or support line. The Treasury Department said Monday that China's holdings dipped by $5.8 billion to $889 billion in January compared with December. Japan, the second-largest foreign holder of U.S. government debt, also trimmed its holdings but by a much smaller $300 million, to $765.4 billion...see Bond fundamentals...  We have no doubt and the US and the European Authorities are selling their mothers and children in order to keep interest rates as low as possible. This -at least- provides some sense of false security to many consumers and CEO's which don't understand this FALSE SIGNAL is extremely dangerous to their financial health. In the end the MARKETS will decide which way the interest rates will go...and there is NO DOUBT it will be up!

  • Investors who decide to stay in Bonds will loose even more than those who understand Equities are safer. World Stock markets don't let a lot of room for doubt about this statement.

  • The U.S. dollar index is toying will critical up trend support. Our charts leave little doubt as they clearly show the correction has stalled in the top part of the trend channel...click here

  • Gresham's law live in Argentina makes me think about the days where residents of European countries (Greece, Spain) used Post stamps instead of coins (because the coins had disappeared)...The Argentina coin shortage is growing as inflation makes a coin's metal worth more than its face value. Despite Argentine President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner’s promise more than a year ago to introduce electronic bus tickets in Buenos Aires, the vast majority of the capital’s bus lines still only accepts coins. This would not be such a big deal if not for the fact that Argentina has had a coin shortage for more than three years. The crisis has turned normally mundane tasks – like buying a newspaper or a snack – into a big hassle.

  • The Canadian Dollar is about to reach parity with the US-Dollar...click here... and the British Pound is trying to reach parity with the Euro...click here...

  • Communicating financial vessels: Yes, we know the economy sucks and we are sliding into a Depression...and yet World Stock markets continue to respond to the Quantitative Easing and it becomes clear the Zimbabwe effect is pushing up markets or it ain't the price of the Equities (real assets) going up but rather the value of Fiat Paper money coming down. But what sense does it make to invest into Equities which are sitting in a Secular Bear market trend when expressed in Real Money or Gold.

  • At this point we have more clarity about the behavior of World Stock Markets expressed in Fiat Money and we have deleted one of the potential scenario's.

  • Charts in the section Financials have been updated...click here...

Tuesday March 16, 2010

  • This is one American state which has decided to accept barbaric Silver as payment...click here for more...

  • Honestly, I am getting sick of this double dip recession talk. I also wonder who invented the term 'Double dip recession'? Probably the same people who invented the terms: Negative inflation, disinflation, etc...We're already in a depression and I really don't see how one can define what we are going to experience as a 'Double Dip"!? Propaganda, ignorance, stupidity?...double dip recession believers must click here....

  • Real Estate will be out of fashion until 2033. I understand many entrepreneurs are being misled by Fractional Reserve Banking, the creation of Fiat Money out of thin air and the artificial low interest rates. Ultimately they will pay a high price for their belief...[ This is what many people think: I am not an economist, nor an estate agent or financial advisor; However, housing prices in this country are completely over inflated and this makes them unaffordable]

  • There is not the slightest doubt the Dollar remains bearish (is no safe heaven) and Gold and Silver bullish. This statement applies to all world Residents and all Fiat paper money holders. Our Point and Figure charts are clear and straightforward...The dollar finally reached our key resistance level of 81..click here...

  • The longer Gold sits in the present trading range, the stronger the move will be once it breaks out of it.

  • Crude Oil is playing the game of Three taps and a Breakout/breakdown...click here... Having said this, don't forget natural Gas...click here

  • Interesting chart and comment in the section Bond fundamentals...click here...

Monday March 15, 2010 - not only the Dollar, but also the Euro and other Fiat Paper currencies are about to come home to roost! It makes absolutely no sense to jump out of the Dollar into the Euro or out of the Euro into the British pound...

  • Thanks to the Talking Heads the Herd is almost always running into the wrong direction. Ironically it is the HERD who makes the extreme prices. Real Estate was and is a good example and Bonds are another example by excellence. The month of February saw the biggest US government budget deficit ever of $ 2 trillion and Bonds are just off their historic peaks!? At the mean time China and Japan are selling part of their US-Treasury holdings and Dollars. Before you decide to buy any Dollars don't forget to check our Dollar-Fundamentals section!

  • Everybody has noticed the hectic about Greece, country with a similar (ratio to GNP) budget deficit as the USA.  The Greek are locked in by the EU (because of the Euro they cannot devaluate their currency) but the USA is not. The Dollar can and will be devaluated.  Few people see the dramatic financial problems of the Federal USA, American states and cities...

  • Talks about double dip recessions are great but don’t tell the investor what’s gonna happen to the Stock Markets.  It is clear this is a liquidity driven Bull Run and that markets are extremely overbought and that the fundamentals aren’t there. This however doesn’t mean the Stock Markets must necessarily slide into a second down wave. Quantitative Easing and the Zimbabwe effect can ensure we have at least a sideward action and once the Hyperinflation kicks in, we could actually see a Dow Jones industrials of 30,000, 300,000 and higher.

  • Anno 2012  the digitalization of Securities (bonds, equities) in the EU will be complete. And the trap will be completely closed. Hiding will become extremely difficult (if possible at all) and any kind of control, taxation, moratorium, re-arrangement extremely easy. A click on ENTER will be enough to take away all of your official savings! The only investment instrument which one will be able to hold without anybody else’s knowledge will be physical Gold and Silver.

  • And yes, last Friday 3 banks had to close down in the USA...and all is well Madame la Marquise. Worldwide Retail sales are up, unemployment is down and Real Estate activity is UP...at least this is what 'the King' wants you to believe.  The Bank index has broken out and technically this signals a BUY...however click here for more...

Saturday March 13, 2010

  • American states may hold onto tax refunds for months: 40 American states are in such a bad financial shape that they now even start to postpone tax refunds. New York, hit with a $9 billion deficit, may delay $500 million in refunds to keep the state from running out of cash, says Gov. David Paterson...click here for more...

  • Social Democracy, Pillar of US Hegemony in Europe, Is Dying . This is an article published by the English version of the Pravda. Nobody will doubt Russians (the former USSR) knows what they are talking about as their leaders have read and adopted Karl Marx for years until 1989 when the USSR went bankrupt overnight...click here for more...

  • We have little doubt that the EU won't survive as complex societies never survive expensive energy. It is clear that somehow the huge problems of Greece, Italy, France, Spain and Portugal will break the back of the Euro. It is however impossible to tell when this is gonna happen before, after or during the secession of the USA. The transition will be preceded by an increase in volatility of the Fiat currency rates. Yesterday the EU and Europe was a dead duck, today the sentiment has reversed. Or how short term fluctuations often don't make any sense and act in an absolute illogic way. Better know what you are doing unless you prefer to head straight for disaster!

  • $-Gold has somewhat been behaving in an illogic way....but charts are charts and what they tell hasn't changed a dime...click here . As usual we refer to our charts of Gold in British Pound, Euro, CanDollar [has our special attention - see investment table], Yen, Aussie, SA-Rand and Swiss if $-Gold is behaving in a weird way...and you will change your mind quickly!

  • $-Silver is steady and the candle chart is interesting...click here... €-Silver looks even better...click here

  • Once international currency controls are put in place, it will become impossible to buy Gold and Silver. Better act now before it's too late. Don't say they won't do it. They have done it in the past and they will do it again to save their skin. (or at least they think it will )

Friday March 12, 2010

  • What is wrong with these Kamikaze politicians creating Social unrest in Athens, Greece? This is exactly what we expected for Greece and what can be expected for other countries which will in the future run into similar problems because Politicians are doing EXACTLY the opposite of what must be done. These guys are completely irresponsible! Even J. M. Keynes knew it: you simply DO NOT increase taxes during an economic downturn unless you want to slaughter what is left of the economic activity!

  • The EU is absolutely right in limiting Hedge Fund activity in Europe and Geithner (read Goldman Sachs and his 40 bandits) is absolutely wrong.  The time the USA could control the world is consumed by stupid greed, debt and irresponsible financial policies...click here for more...

  • Will the Canadian loonie end up being a better Fiat Currency than the US-Dollar!? Our PF charts leave  a clear and distinct answer...click here...

  • JP Morgan and Citigroup 'had part in Lehman failure'! Off course they had and it was 'the perfect murder'...It is no secret that JPMorgan played a vicious role during the Great Depression of the 30's...click here for more...

  • Europe's banks brace for UK debt crisis.  UniCredit has alerted investors in a client note that Britain is at serious risk of a bond market and sterling debacle and faces even more intractable budget woes than Greece. One has to be blind and deaf to hold on to BRITISH GILTS (BONDS)

  • BONDS will signal when Hyperinflation ignites. The mixture is ready (Quantitative Easing) and we only need to wait until something or somebody lights the fuse...click here for more... The day the fuse burns, Gold and Silver will go parabolic and those who don't buy any now will be left empty handed. This is as fast as it will go! So remember that it doesn't make sense to buy Gold and Silver if you don't take physical delivery. Those who decide to keep Bonds will loose their savings in no time!

  • For those who keep trusting Banks (an average of 4 have to close down each week in the USA), just check this list of +400 US Banks which are in deep trouble before you decide to buy Bank/Financial shares...click here

  • According to the talking Heads, markets are acting in expectation of Retail figures which will be published tonight. In reality these figures have since long been taken into account for by the financial markets and such statement only adds to the volatility of the financial markets. Having said this, Retail figures are function of Inflation and we all know that -expressed in Real figures- they are bad and will get worse. There is NO WAY we can see a recovery as long as unemployment figures are rising. And this is exactly what they are doing.

  • Today the Dollar, the Euro and Gold & Silver are doing exactly what they are supposed to do. The US Dollar was a dead man walking 12 and 6 months ago...and the only thing which has changed, is that it's situation has worsened. Such is -off course- very hard to understand for those who keep listening to the Static brewed by the Media and Politicians. The world is in such a mess that on both sides of the Atlantic they think their problem is the worst one.

  • It is not hard to understand that down the road we shall have CURRENCY CONTROLS.  Such is an ultimate instrument to control in- and export of Capital and is used by several countries as a protection and to avoid a run on the Fiat currency. It is a system of Financial money and Convertible money. Such a system is currently used in South-Africa and was used by countries with weaker economies and currencies in Europe years ago. Examples are France, Spain and Belgium. Under such a system the exchange rate is different depending the funds are used for payment of goods or for a transfer of capital.

Thursday March 11, 2010

  • Abstract figures sometimes don't picture a situation properly.  We all know that Greece, Italy, France, Spain and Portugal are in a bad shape. There is however no better lesson than experiencing this LIFE and when actually traveling through these countries it becomes obvious that these have an HUGE problem. Locals have unconsciously adapted and learned to live with the worsening shape their society is in.

  • Gold is down for two sessions and the whole world is on fire? Markets are overbought and oversold, markets do fluctuate and have become increasingly volatile. Fundamentals haven't changed...neither have the technicals. Be aware the total market capitalization of the Gold sector is smaller than the capitalization of Coca-Cola...Be aware there are trillions of uncontrolled monopoly DERIVATIVES and that they are a handy tool to try to manipulate the markets in the short run [no market can be manipulated in the long run]. Having said this, if you were as China planning to buy the balance of the IMF Gold, would you not at least try to push down the spot price of Gold before you do?

  • Don't throw you Gold away for Fiat paper money!   Gold is the only money without any liability which can be stored away out of reach of the Authorities. The Public finances are a disaster and the Authorities have no alternate but to invent other ways to tax people in order to survive.

  • The British pound and the Gold chart expressed in Pound is a schoolbook example of PF charting!...click here...

Wednesday March 10,2010

  • It is simply impossible for China to make Gold its primary investment. There simply isn't enough physical gold. Better watch what the Chinese are doing (buying large quantities of Gold and promoting Gold as an investment towards its citizens ans stop reading this kind of 'silly one day articles which make no sense' . Gold is going to $ 1300, $ 1640 and higher...click here...

  • The charts in the section Oil Shares have been updated...click here...

  • The Natural Gas and Coal section has been updated...click here...

  • The EU and especially Germany seem to understand Derivatives and Credit Default Swaps are an unregulated, uncontrolled financial Atomic bomb which needs to be checked as soon as possible. The question is whether it is not too late to act?...click here...

Tuesday March 9, 2010

  • The 1st Tax Heavens were Villa's: A Villa used to be a self sufficient estate that also became a safe haven from taxation in the city and who gave birth to Suburbanization as people who could afford it fled the taxation of the cities (Rome).

  • Normally one could expect Real Estate to rally with Inflation. However this is normally not the case once the 78 year long term high has been reached (as it has now). This because Real Estate will in the future suffer from higher taxation and contraction in debt. For those who understand the Public debt is together with the private debt and the Real Estate crises the main engine behind the actual crisis it all becomes very different and not rosy at all.

  • World Stock markets were overbought and we have/had a correction. Our PF charts for the individual markets and the candle charts picture the potential scenario's.

  • Are we approaching the point with government bonds where the assumptions that have carried this once-derided instrument triumphantly through three decades of consistently good returns need to be discarded? Remember to sell High and to buy Low...and do you really have faith in Government and Banks after all what is happening right now? - Iceland, Dubai, Greece, California, Illinois, Lehman Bros, Bear Stearns, AIG and an average of 4 US banks closing each weekend. In the 1930’s the US was a creditor and Europe was collapsing in debt. One Government after another declared a moratorium on its debt and capital fled from Europe to the USA. In 1944 the US held 76% of the world’s Gold reserves. Today the USA has become a net debtor and it's Gold holding has vanished. It has actually moved to China and India. Actually, we can compare today's shape of the USA with the shape Britain was after the Great depression. As a greater proportion of the public realizes the degree of difficulty that sovereign debt is in and when you can't depend on your government paper as a safe haven, that fact puts gold in a much better light in more people's eyes.

  • And yes the Middle and Far-East (China) is consuming all the west is saving.

Monday March 8, 2010

  • We have updated the charts in the SA-Rand section....The SA prime lending rate is 10,50%...click here . And according to the IMF - Africa [a producer of commodities] is back from crisis...click here.

  • We have updated the charts in the CanDollar section...click here

  • Check also our charts for the Aussie...click here

  • Those who are in denial and sticked to the British Pound live a dramatic experience...click here to see how one can loose at  30% of his savings in only 12 month's time. Assuming they are invested in Real Estate or Bonds the loss is larger.

  • Those who are so sure the Dollar will go up and the Euro will tank, could be in for a bad surprise...

  • Gold and Silver Juniors have been updated...click here for the very interesting charts...

  • The never ending story goes and on...each day as the  the US markets open, Gold is down during the opening...but only for so long. $ 1125+ 5 x $ 20 = $ 1225

  • OTC derivatives marketed out of London killed Iceland so the big wigs of Iceland see no reason to pay back depositors. The vote was a plausible denial for those up top in Iceland. Other than making these instruments a capital crime, as the Chinese have, there is no stopping them. (J. Sinclair) .  ETF and Gold warrant traders should be aware that in most cases the operation is settled in CASH and NOT in Gold.

  • Credit default swap OTC derivatives are weapons of real warfare. Credit Default Swaps are like a car insurance. Instead of buying an insurance for a car you have bought, you buy an insurance for a Bond you bought. Financial institutions bought crap Bonds and converted these into AAA Bonds by buying an Credit default swap. If the insurance fails, what is left is a worthless Bond ..click here...

  • There are still people which think we are doing nothing more than promote Barbaric Gold and Silver. To be honest, we would by far prefer to promote Bonds and ordinary investment vehicles. The only problem is that our analysis says NO and we have -in the end- little or no alternatives left.

Saturday March 6, 2010

  • Can you imagine there are countries in the world with falling tax income, who battle with budget deficits, have an economic depression and unemployment but where at the same time they BY LAW FORBID people to work and/or to open their shops on certain days?

  • David Kern (Britain) pretends the recession is over!? Either this guy is a complete idiot or he has Alzheimer [read what Goebbels said about lies]. The situation in Britain is so bad they are planning to increase taxes (VAT) on food. When Bread becomes too expensive they will advise people to eat cake (Marie-Antoinette, France) or when Pork gets too expensive they will advise the people to eat Rabbit (Zapatero, Spain) Raising taxes in a time of Depression is about the worst that can be done! [chart below is for the USA...but Britain ain't any better!]...click here...

  • Our Investment table is straight foreward and we try to clearly indicate which instruments are valid when expressed in Real Barbaric Money and which ones are valid when expressed in Nominal Fiat Monopoly money.

  • With fixed exchange rates (like in the EU) a devaluation is impossible and only higher Interest Rates can attract fresh Capital at a higher cost: after Iceland we see this happening in Greece and it will happen in other countries as soon as they run into trouble...Domino, domino...The higher interest rates will choke any potential economic revival and break the back of the Real Estate markets. Remember what we wrote months ago: this is a paradigm shift!

    • Add to this that overregulation and taxation creates an instability that detracts capital and long-term investment in infrastructure for manufacturing. The Floating Exchange rate system has introduced a natural mechanism [this is the invisible hand of Adam Smith] where capital itself is voting on the domestic policies of any nation. Hopefully the Authorities will figure out that they too must be competitive to attract capital and jobs for their people (instead of chasing it away like they are doing now).

  • The logic of the former paragraph is that the interest rates will rise first in those countries with the weakest economies (Iceland, Greece,....) and last in those countries with the strongest economies (China, Germany). This will in turn choke the economies of the weaker countries....or ensure we shall see a complete disaster of those economies and societies.

  • Oh...we almost forgot to tell that last Friday 'only' 4 Banks were closed in the USA. Centennial Bank, Ogden, UT  Waterfield Bank, Germantown, MD  Bank of Illinois, Normal, IL  Sun America Bank, Boca Raton, FL  ...but nobody seems to mind...the news doesn't even hit the Media Headlines!? You think this is normal?

  • Iceland rejected Bank Payback plan. Iceland banks go bankrupt, foreign investors loose money and foreign governments push it so far that they want the Iceland citizen (which has nothing to do with the whole story in the 1st place) to stand in for the losses of the foreign investor...immoral and how arrogant Governments are! How twisted the minds of some people are!?..click here... If you decide to invest with a Bank and this bank goes bust, you're the only one to blame...if you buy bonds of a country (Greece, Britain) and the country goes belly up and/or the currency of this country is devaluated by 30% (Britain) , you're the one to blame...

Friday March 5, 2010

  • The Greek debt is roughly the size of Lehman Bros. So please calm down! As usual Politicians blame others for the stupidities they made themselves. Greece is an excellent example. And they use the problems happening in one country to mask more important ones in another one (California). The King’s treasury chests are empty! History my dear, don’t forget to study history…The Greek president Papandreou and authorities has a lot of guts. First they rob the country, now they raise taxes and tell those which have been robbed, they will have to pay even more taxes. Similar scenario’s can be expected all over the Western world.  The EU has been set on fire in Greece and we expect the fire to expand to Italy, Spain, Portugal and Ireland tearing apart another political bureaucratic idea. COMPLEX SOCIETIES NEVER SURVIVE EXPENSIVE ENERGY!

    • A default on the Greek debt would be excellent for it would punish those who were stupid enough to lend money to the Government enabling First of all, it would punish people stupid enough, or immoral enough, to lend governments money. They don't deserve to get their money back – they've been supporting these governments and their bad habits…(Casey)

  • World stock markets are still in the danger zone, but the coming days will either bring security and an indication the Zimbabwe factor is spreading [as we thing it will] or we will see the start of the second down wave..

  • The bull run in Gold spills over into Treasuries. Treasuries are right on the cusp of breaching a 30-year trendline.

  • The greatest returns are when a widely-held belief of investors proves incorrect.

  • The British pound is more unloved than the Zimbabwe Dollar. The sterling also fell by more than 1.7 per cent against Zimbabwe’s much-mocked paper, completing a decline of more than 7 % since the end of January. Blair, Brown & Co. have cleansed out what was left of the British Emporium after WWII. Because of taxation and regulation, production and capital have left the UK for better yielding locations. Jaguar is now in the hands of an Indian company....click here for more... Amazing is the fact that British people kept voting for these political Kamikazes...and that the Herd still doesn't seem to understand what is going on and tend to blame OTHERS.

  • Jobs are the key….there cannot be any recovery without an increase of employment. What see today is RISING unemployment and hence falling consumption all over the Western world.

  • Who are there guys who borrow their way out of debt? Only politicians and Central bankers are that stupid! Why do they keep killing the Goose that lays the golden egg?

  • There are $ 204 trillion derivatives. The figure equals 14 times the American GNP. They are spread over only 5 Banks. The largest part (85%) is interest rate contracts. This is an Financial Atomic Bomb!

  • Gold fundamentals have been updated...click here...

  • South African Rand rallies against the euro and the dollar. Subscribers know the Rand has been on our watch list for some time now...click here for the chart section...

Thursday March 4, 2010

  • March 31, 1960 Ferdinand Peeters, a deeply religious Belgian gynecologic doctor revealed the results of his research for a birth control pill before the scientists of Schering in Berlin. Everything else is history. Belgium had the 1st railroad system on the continent, great entrepreneurs (Internet, Solvay, Cockerill), excellent products (beers, waffles, chocolates, crystal glass, linen, breads and an quality oriented work force (Volvo, Audi A1, FN). Unfortunately, the local politicians have over the last decennia been specializing in destroying the economy and chasing capital away out of a small country  which could have been richer than Switzerland...

  • The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its overnight cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.0% in March 2010. RBA Governor Glenn Stevens explained, "Interest rates to most borrowers nonetheless remain lower than average. The Board judges that with growth likely to be close to trend and inflation close to target over the coming year, it is appropriate for interest rates to be closer to average." The RBA was the first major central bank to hike interest rates, raising them in October 2009.This decision will make all our subscribers who hold Aussies happy...click here for the chart section...

  • February 2, 2010 we published a bottom for Gold had been reached...scroll down...Ever since 2001 I have been bullish on Gold and Silver [and often being treated as an idiot and a lunatic...even more when in 2006 I became bearish on Real Estate]...but this is probably the fate of all good financial analysts. There is something about a lot of people which makes them act as being part of a Herd. For some dark reason they prefer to 'believe' the lies of the Authorities, Banksters and Talking Heads and/or to live in denial. Initially their advise doesn't cost a dime, in the end it costs the fortune which is being lost.

  • The US Dollar has - as expected - lost upward momentum...click here for the $ - chart section... and €-section. Short term is has broken out of a trading range...not in the direction the market expected. Interesting for the short term gamblers is that for the last months each day Gold falls upon opening of the US markets ...at the same time the Dollar rises against the Euro. But this could change any day.

Wednesday March 3, 2010

  • Both Gold and Silver are slowly but surely telling us the Fiat Paper money system ain't even worth the ink and the paper it is printed on. After Iceland, we had Dubai, California, Illinois, Greece, Britain etc...and we are coming extremely close to Debt Monetization [there is no way they will let Greece down for if they did the consequences would start a dramatic domino game in the style of Lehman Bros.

  • Gold mines will be mining barbaric money even though that concept has never entered the minds of the major producers. If it had they would not sell every ounce they mine or hedge anything ever.

  • Yesterday €-Gold and £-Gold both hit a new record. Subscribers were warned in time. One had to be blind not to see it...Just try to imagine what will happen the day the Dollar weakens!

  • The Dollar/Euro sits in a trading range with important resistance for the Dollar...see charts

  • Interesting developments on the PF and candle charts for GLD (Gold ETF)...see charts

  • Gold is not a solitary runner. Silver has also broken out of an ABC correction...click here for the charts

  • I expect Swiss-Gold to make a fresh all time high today. The PF is extremely interesting as it clearly shows the channel borderlines and where Swiss-Gold sits at this time...click here

  • Charts in the Commodity section have been updated, rather interesting...click here...

  • We have defined a short to medium term objective for $-Gold...click here...Our objective is the result of 3 overlapping patterns: trend channel, Head and Shoulder pattern and intermediate trend channel.

Tuesday March 2, 2010

  • Gold is acting like it is in some sort of pressure cooker. It keeps building up pressure but cannot blow the lid off of the pot. Eventually it does. Technically we call this a coil. Once the lid blows off...or the price breaks out of the coil (like today for £-Gold) a bull or bear run is initiated.

  • All of a Sudden, US Quickly Finds Reason to Delay Troops Withdrawal from Iraq. Israel distributes new gas masks to civilians...This could be the action blowing up the golden pressure cooker...click here for more...

  • The British pound suffers sharpest daily fall in more than one year and Gold expressed in Sterling has made a new high. The pound fell the most in more than a year as foreign-exchange markets reacted with shock to the prospect that a hung parliament will fail to tackle Britain's deficit. ...click here for more.. If Britain looses its AAA rating the Gilts (British Treasury bonds could collapse, break through the support [see Bond section] and force Britain to monetize its debt. Action which will have Hyperinflationary consequences. Today we had a breakaway gap on the candle chart of British Pound-Gold!

  • As we wrote earlier, the Bond market and the charts in the Bond section are extremely important as they will tell us WHEN the Hyperinflation will start...as soon as the end of 2010 and not later than 2012. This applies to the USA, the UK and the EU.

  • We have adjusted our Gold position in the section "Investment"

  • We almost forgot. Only two American banks were closed last Friday.

  • Are Darling and the Brits on Speed? This is the time to CUT TAXES and decrease regulation...not to increase them like the British Authorities have in mind. Only deregulation and lower taxation will bring back Capital and Employment back to England. Thatcher understood this and gave London a special tax status. Whether or not London is becoming a large laundry house is less important. If London closes the door to the washing machine, the capital will go elsewhere and the City suffer even more. Something Britain cannot afford today....click here for more...

Monday March 1, 2010 - click on the graph to enlarge

  • This is why it is preferable to buy physical Gold instead of physical Silver in West Europe...click here and scroll down for more...

  • Do check our short term PF €-Gold chart with objectives....click here...

  • More Quantitative Easing all over the Western World. We would publish a similar chart for the Euro and the British Pound....if only 'they' were not hiding the figures and the charts even harder than the US does.

  • Gold expressed in Swiss Franc actually gives an excellent picture of the trend channel...click here and scroll down for more... The chart clearly shows where Gold stands and what the bullish objective is.

  • World indexes have been updated. One stock market index only has successfully tested its reversal (breakout) level. Other stock market indexes are still hovering between a bullish Zimbabwe break through their Down trend line and a fresh down leg...

  • Hyperinflation in the USA, the UK and the EU is possible before the end of 2010. Governments sit in a catch 22 (only in December 2009 Trichet said Greece was no problem at all) and all Governments will keep repeating all will be well...until Hell breaks loose. Politics is the second oldest profession in the World. At least the oldest profession has a happy ending. Read how well this scenario fits today's reality...click here...

  • For the stubborn Bond and Treasury holders/buyers this special chart. [click on it to enlarge] Bonds dating from the last Depression still have some collectors value...today's digital bonds will end up being worth absolutely NOTHING or ZERO!

  • We will one of these publish a similar chart for the stubborn Real Estate holder. It ain't any better and won't be until 2033!




Friday February 26, 2010

  • If only preserving your savings was so easy as making money. Not only do you have to find a safe way through a dangerous labyrinth but during this quest you are continuously bombarded by false indications and lies. The worst is that the MOPE, STATIC and LIES is actually produced by the Authorities, Talking Heads, Newspapers and financial magazines. Madoff is an Altar boy compared to what you are subject to each day...poor investors. As usual 'The Herd' will at a certain point and all of a sudden realize 'the Emperor has no clothes'...but at that time it will be too late to rearrange your savings. I have experienced this over and over again. My last experiences dates back from the days just before the Real Estate Crash started in the US, the Iceland drama and the 30% pre-Pound Sterling devaluation. I remember that in those days many called (or thought) I was a pessimist and an idiot.

  • Junior investors/traders still live with the false hope Algorithms, scalping, trading, buying and selling will make them money and they use internet trading like a juke Box, an investment simulator or some Internet game. It only takes so long before they find out there must be a better and safer way....we offer this for only € 295 per year! Last year we 'only' made 50% expressed in Nominal Money and we don't remember the days where we made less than 25%...

  • Many Real Estate investors still live in denial (the Nile is the longest river on Earth)  refuse to cut their losses short and switch their assets into an investment instrument which would actually allow them to get out of the red figures fast...instead of waiting until 2033 before Real Estate actually stands out of the death.

  • The Authorities more and more engage into LIES, Window Dressing and Hiding of the truth. The Fed is loading its balance sheets with garbage and the ECB is doing exactly the same. The ONLY difference is that it is even harder to find out what the ECB is doing...click here fore more... Particularly disturbing was the contradiction about China buying HALF of IMF's Gold: the World Gold council affirmed  China wasn't a realistic candidate but the English version of the Pravda confirmed the intention of China to buy the Gold.!!!??? This proofs how vicious and unreliable the Authorities have become...GOT GOLD?

Thursday February 25, 2010

  • All roads lead to Goldman Sachs. They helped Greece to falsify the figures like they helped Portugal, Italy and Ireland. Having said this, the problems of California, Illinois, Florida, North Carolina and Ohio (just to name some) are consistently higher than the problems of the PIGS and PINGUIMS. But such is irrelevant as the odds grow the EU will collapse as a result of the collapse of the Dollar anyhow.

  • The Euro is fishing for a bottom and technically has yet to be confirmed. The Euro needs to continue going sideways for 5-7 trading days and form a base before there is any indication a bottom has been put in place. But whether the Euro gets stronger against the Dollar or not is less important, just as it is less important what the World Stock markets will do expressed in Nominal terms. Only the relationship against Barbaric Gold is important and as our charts show, the trend is DOWN in both cases!

  • It’s going to be a great spring, starting any day now, if you are in the right stuff: gold and silver mines and juniors are at price levels below those when Gold was trading at $ 700 and we expect great earning figures to be released soon.

  • The Germans felt their system wouldn't collapse, but it took a wheelbarrow of money to buy a loaf of bread in the 1930s. The Soviet Union didn't think their system would collapse, but it did. Ours is capable of collapsing also.

  • What Bernanke and Trichet are preaching about the Interest Rates is nothing more but MOPE and LIES, DAMN LIES. The social security, pension system, Medicare and Global debt (because of the bailouts private debt is now also becoming public debt) has reached an astronomical level. In the USA in 1929 the ratio Debt to GNP was 190%. Today the official figure ranges close to 400% but the real figure is as high as 800%. In other words, it has become impossible for the Authorities to cover it and today one can be 200% sure that the Financial system will actually crash/collapse taking the Dollar with it (or vice versa)  What we have is a paradigm shift!

  • Best case scenario, in about 5 years from now interest payments will account for 30% of the tax income. In reality we think the situation will reach a dramatic level by 2012 for the simple reason that the Depression is killing tax income in an exponential way.

  • THE TRAP IS CLOSED: The yield on each additional invested €/$ has become NEGATIVE. In a system of fractional reserve banking and fiat money, the amount of fresh credit/debt/money to pull the economy out of a recession becomes larger each time a reversal has to be engineered [Von Mises economics]. We have now reached the point where the GDP return of each additional invested £/€/$ 1 has become NEGATIVE. In other words, we have crossed the point of NO RETURN and the only question left is not whether but WHEN the system will collapse!...click here for more This statement takes away ALL questions and scenario's about mopping up the Quantitative Easing.

  • More social unrest or Greece is a foretaste of what it to happen in Western Europe and the USA. The Greek population certainly did not create the crisis they are in right now ....but they let it happen...click ere for more...

  • The charts in the Oil section and Commodities section have been updated.

  • Bullish double bottoms with 2 key reversals...click here to see more of today's impressive action.

  • The charts of the Junior mines have been updated.

  • Tip of the month: (click on the chart for the details)

Wednesday February 24, 2010

Are you an account holder with Citibank!? If so, be advised following statement is not a joke. [got Gold?]

"Effective April 1, 2010, we reserve the right to require (7) days advance notice before permitting a withdrawal from all checking accounts. While we do not currently exercise this right and have not exercised it in the past, we are required by law to notify you of this change," Citigroup said on statements received by customers all over the country.

  • The Financial and economic crisis we are living is for real. It is no accident Banksters and Authorities are doing all within their power to keep the system alive because their very lives are involved. For this reason the odds are the system will collapse overnight wiping out billions of deposits and savings.

  • Ripley's believe it or not, but in Western Europe, legislation forbids most businesses to be open on Sundays and not only forces many to be closed on Mondays but also regulates the business opening hours. Western Europe is sliding in a depression and yet the politicians are doing all they can to bring down Employment !?

  • Thank you Mister President! Under the pretext of reducing Carbon pollution and Global Warming (a political hoax) , maximum speed on roads is limited and gas is heavily taxed. As a result, liquid energy consumption has fallen by 3%, refinery plants are closed and thousand of people loose their jobs!?

  • We haven't seen the bottom of the real estate markets yet!  New home sales in the USA drop 11 percent in January, new low...click here for more Worldwide it will get a lot worse before it gets any better! (the figures were the lowest ever since they started to keep the figures in 1963)

  • Fundamentally and Technically, the Pound risks a savage (down) reaction and we could see a run on the Pound sometime in the near future. Our readers know what we think of the British politicians and economic decisions...click here for more... Arrogant Nigel Farage could not have chosen a worse time to declare Herman Van Rompuy [the president of the EU]  has the charisma of a damn rag and the looks of low class bank clerk. The question I want to ask, is who are these British politicians who have ruined Britain in the first place and sold the British gold at the very bottom of the market in 1999!? I know these guys are arrogant because they [only] speak English but I would expect a minimum of manners of one of the politicians who ran Britain into bankruptcy!  Having said this, the end of Nigel's statement is worth listening to. Democracy in Europe is in grave danger indeed!

  • All Fiat money is in a race to worth-less-ness. Only gold will protect your financial position.

  • Ben Bernanke may expect interest rates to stay low for a long time, but we don't. The Authorities can only control (manipulate) interest rates for so long and the natural forces of economics will sooner or later come back with a revenge. Having said this, you can't trust one word of what these guys are proclaiming.

Tuesday February 23, 2010

  • $-Gold shows a double top breakout. By doing this it also breaks out of a bullish flag and moves in symphony with gold and silver expressed in other monopoly money..

  • Only GOLD and SILVER will be able to keep your savings during the coming debacle. Investors out of Iceland, Britain, Vietnam, Zimbabwe,...can testify it really does...For a minute try to THINK what will happen to Gold expressed in Euro the day the Euro falls apart!

  • Watch out for a potential HS pattern on the Dollar/Euro chart!

  • The Western world becomes an Asylum run by madmen: Philips France decides to close a factory because it can produce elsewhere with less taxation and regulation but a judge rules the factory to reopen!?

  • Europe is consuming 3% less liquid energy [the East is over happy to be able to consume the surplus] and Total Oil is closing refineries. A logic economic decision any CEO would make to ensure the survival of the company. Decision which is apparently not understood by the Unions and the Authorities which are doing all they can to reduce the consumption of liquid energy!?. What sense does it make to produce something locally which is not consumed anyhow? Consumption will not come back until "they" stop Job losses...but such is probable to hard to understand for a certain class of people which is doing all it can to push the Western World into the Abyss!

  • We can't repeat it often again in the hope some Politician may read and understand it (the majority of the People and the Middle class understands this since long!) but they are reading and applying Karl Marx and the Western World will for this reason end as the USSR and China ended in 1989 = BANKRUPT!  Who would ever have dreamed of reading this in a Russian newspaper!? : The Russian owners of American companies and industries should look thoughtfully at this and the option of closing their facilities down and fleeing the land of the Red as fast as possible. In other words, divest while there is still value left    click here for more...

Monday February 22,  2010

  • In the subscriber section we have published the Long term price objective for $-Silver. This picture alone is worth more than a silver penny.

  • We have also added a chart with long term Gold objectives in the subscriber section.

  • When you feel like, do check what Trichet's big mouth effect is on the €-Crude Oil price.

  • We and other analyst are aware the price of Gold and Silver is manipulated and suppressed by the central banks. Important is to know that this kind of action will at a certain point fail and the longer the price is suppressed the more violent the subsequent upswing will be!  Only with PATIENCE and persistence one can catch a big fish.

Saturday February 20, 2010 - Socialism is the philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance and preaching of envy.


The West is reading and applying Karl Marx. Now is not the time to hide or stick your heads in the sand with your investments as your paper currencies and bonds are BURNING.  They will fall victim to the central bank printing presses and morally and fiscally BANKRUPT politicians in the social welfare states of the developed world.  Pensions public and private and social contracts are not worth the paper they were written on as Social Security slides into the red a decade earlier than forecast and the trust funds have been STOLEN by corrupt public serpents to buy votes.  One by one these promises will be broken and the “something for nothings” will increasingly become more violent as they realize they have been had.

Friday February 19, 2010

  • The line in the sand has been drawn. The US Fed increased the discount rate by 0,25% to 0,75%. Whatever the magicians pretend, nor the Fed nor the Authorities can control the level of interest rates over a prolonged period of time. What they can is manipulate them in the short run. The long term effect of such an action is interest rates climbing higher and over a longer period of time than if the natural economic forces were allowed to operate freely. I compare the market intervening Central Bankers and Authorities as would be magicians which in the end perish by the very sword they created.

  • Weeks and months ago I warned for this to happen in 2009 Bond crash and in the subscribers Bond section. Not only are Bonds (Gilts, Treasuries, Kasbons) negative yielding instruments but they are also an option to buy worthless Fiat paper money! [also check our Bond Fundamentals]

  • Rising interest rates will as a logic result further hammer the Real Estate Markets which are already falling apart for other reasons.

  • Only Barbaric investment vehicles like Gold, Silver and Gold and Silver equities actually love higher interest rates.

  • Today's biggest danger are Structured products, derivatives and similar uncontrolled and unregulated products which were created (and still are) by Banksters. They are packed and sold in such a way that most investors don't even realize they also have these in their portfolios...until off course an accident happens and they realize the money is gone....

  • As long as the Political idiots running the West refuse "to understand" Capital will leave to those countries with less regulation and taxation, unemployment will keep rising, Simple it is! Multi nationals as Total and Philips have no choice but to keep closing down factories in the EU.

  • The EU and the Euro should be happy Blair and the Brits refused to become an integral part of the EU in 2000.  The British Emporium disappeared after WWI, was whipped again during the Great Depression and WWII. The Great Depression of the 21st century is about to break its back...click here for more...

  • This Friday four American banks were closed:   La Jolla Bank, FSB, La Jolla, CA  George Washington   Savings Bank, Orland Park, IL  The La Coste National Bank, La Coste, TX  Marco Community Bank, Marco Island, FL

Thursday February 18, 2010

  • Like Global Warming, Air travel makes it easy to understand how easy it was to take millions of Jews to the concentration camps. Only weeks ago a kid with fire crackers in his underpants was stopped or the circus tents on Airports have become even bigger. One wonders why similar tents have not been installed in the Underground stations of London or the Railway stations in Madrid.

  • As expected the news that the IMF will sell the unsold portion of the 400 Tonnes only adds fire to the Gold run.

  • We have updated our Long Term chart of the World Stock markets. The exercise of updating teached us interesting lessons about the potential reorganization of portfolios.  These charts must be looked at together with the charts of World Stock markets expressed in Real Money or Gold. These charts don't let a lot to the imagination.

  • We have added a subdivision with Shadow statistics and/or recalculated Government statistics. Charts will be added each time relevant ones can be published.

  • Following slide is a question mark: Why did the Greek bond market collapse and not the Japanese? Japan is in a worse shape than Greece is. What about the USA, Italy and the UK? ...click here for more...


  • Not only do the Authorities bail out the Banksters (and make all of US pay for the losses) but the European Politicians expect the Germans and Dutch to work and pay for the mistakes made by Greeks, Italians and Spanish !? A recipe for a Revolution, social unrest and revolt against the rulers...The EU cannot and will not survive!

  • American FED increases the discount rate by .25% to 0.75%. Or the interest rates will not and cannot stay at these historically low levels for ever...click here for more... Important is to understand Gold and INTEREST RATES can and will rise together.

Wednesday February 17, 2010 - as usual, once the wave starts rolling, there is little to add, except to wish that you enjoy it to a maximum.

  • Yesterday saw an All-Time High Euro Gold: Gold Cartel's 2% Rule Invoked AGAIN. Don't expect them to give up as soaring Gold would hit the front pages and tell the Herd the Fiat Paper money they and we are using ain't even worth the ink on the paper it is printed on. $ 1,108 is an important level for $-Gold!

  • Joe six pack starts to see he's being betrayed and his anger increases against Politicians and Banksters. Goldman Sachs headquarters already need special protection and yesterday there was an explosion before the local Greek JPMorgan offices.

  • Obama plans to invest $ 8 bn in Nuclear plants. This is one of the first intelligent decisions he made since he became president of the USA.

  • Israel mulling a spring or summer war: this would without any doubt influence unemployment in a positive way. World War I & II cleared the unemployment problems of the depressions preceding them..click here for more...

  • Interest rates have no alternate but to go up and Bonds no alternate but to crash...click here for more...

  • Our €-gold , £-Gold , ZAR-Gold , Yen-Gold , Swiss-Gold , Aussie-Gold and Can-Gold charts don't let a lot open to imagination. The wise noses in denial and those who keep listening to the Banksters and politicians will pay dire for their behavior. We have entered an era of financial war and strikes below the belt have become part of the daily show. Something BIG is in the make! The charts of Gold and Silver stocks and Gold and Silver Juniors are an absolute pleasure for the eye.

  • Crude Oil is absolutely responding to the previsions of our Point and Figures charts.

  • And...as we expected, the Euro is not crashing against the Dollar after all....watch the blood on the walls if the Euro gets a little stronger! But first we must clear the present trading zone.

Tuesday February 16, 2010


Dow Jones correction could be over as the Zimbabwe effect kicks in again. Not only do the World Stock markets react to the Billions of Quantitative Easing but Authorities have powerful weapons (Uncontrolled derivatives like CDO's) Plunge Protection Teams , Gold Pool , Federal Reserve, Central banks and Exchange equalization funds can use to manipulate the financial markets. People don't really understand how the financial markets function and most of the time they only see the PRICE LEVEL of Commodities, Stocks, Bonds and Currencies....Extremely dangerous as this sort of action will at some time in the future result in an uncontrollable crash. For this very reason NOW is the TIME to readjust and safeguard your investments. The same people have and are manipulating the price of Gold and Silver like they did it in the past when Gold could be bought at $ 35....but by doing this they are casting the sword which is going to destroy them. Remember the total capitalization of the Gold sector is smaller than the market capitalization of Coca-Cola. The day the physical Gold market clashes with the paper Gold market, the price of gold will go nuts!


Monday February 15, 2010 - US and Canadian markets will be closed on Monday !


  • 1. The crisis the Western world is a crisis of Marxism-socialism and not a crisis of Capitalism.

  • 2. Fractional Reserve banking and the creation of fiat money out of thin air is the very basis of the crisis as it only creates an illusion of wealth.

  • 3. Global warming and Green regulation is nothing but an enormous waste.

  • 4. A stable and decent Monetary system is the basis for a sustained and sound economic growth.

  • 5. We are experiencing a destruction of Capital and the self destructive credit system.

  • 6. Free market enterprise and not a Government controlled society is the spine a each economic growth.

  • 7. The bail out of the 'too big to fail' is about the worst decision Government could make and it  only makes the Depression worse.

  • 8. Society has reached a point where the Taxation and Regulation is about to break the back of the camel.

  • 9. The actual crisis will only end once the misallocated funds created under # 2 have been cleansed out of the system.

Saturday February 13, 2010 - Justice isn't blind, it's unconscious -

  • Greek deficit + Financial Problems  = Quantitative Easing + higher Gold

  • We added a Shadow statistics section for the USA...click here for more...

  • $ 5,000 Gold !? It will according to Welles Wilder, who has previously been highlighted by publications such as Forbes and Barron’s for his skill in the markets, reports. His belief was revealed by another local trader Oli Hille, who trades in New Zealand’s currency markets, and is currently writing a book, which is to be titled Creating the Perfect Lifestyle. Mr Hille told the news provider:He implies his call is based on the US dollar becoming weaker and weaker and basically falling out of bed.” 

  • Trichet certainly wishes he kept his mouth shut when the Euro was at $1.52 as the decline thereafter to his verbal intervention set the stage for the attack that followed. Having said this, it shows how the Forex markets are floated by BS, MOPE, Static and emotion.

  • The government-bond market in the West is a gigantic Ponzi scheme.  Madoff is an altar boy compared to most governments. Most governments in the ‘developed’ world are drowning in debt, they are running mind-boggling budget deficits and printing money like there is no tomorrow.  Furthermore, under the guise of quantitative easing, their central banks are buying their own newly issued debt. High time to get rid of them if you still have any!

Friday February 12, 2010

  • A new Crusade is in the make. Propaganda against Iran is alive and well and so is Iranese propaganda against the West. There is no doubt in my mind this situation will be used in order to start a War in the Middle East. Such will come very handy once oil supply is endangered, unemployment figures get too high and people start te revolt. Israel is playing a very dangerous role in this play.

  • Gold flies to the upside, despite relative Euro weakness ... until 2% rule invoked. This already happened a couple of times and will happen again...but there is only so much these crooks [we really can't think of another name to call these guys] can do. Chinese and India won't keep taking BS as an answer! The USA and the Dollar  have signed their dead sentence. Having said this, Gold and Silver could move in an explosive way on condition the Dollar continues to be firm. Watch out as €-Gold breaks through the level as indicated in the subscription section!...click here for more...

  • Silver follows in the wake of Gold...click here for more...

  • Not a single analyst understands why the Euro was weak yesterday. Double and even triple bottoms are frequent...especially under the present dramatic short positions. As usual our charts don't mind the static and nonsense sold by the Talking Heads and Politicians. The day we call a trend change, you can be sure it will be a genuine one!

  • Americans Authorities are [for your own safety and health] just like European authorities in a desperate quest for money. Cameras have been installed in different locations in Florida (West Palm beach) to enforce traffic regulations. Just like in Europe 'they' are walking the road of more regulation and more taxation. Such a of policy asphyxiates the economy and normally lasts until either the people revolt or the system collapses. Nothing to be proud of!...click here for more...

  • Unless you want to loose your savings, you must STOP listening to the crap told by the Authorities, Banksters and Talking Heads.  Pure logic it is Sherlock Holmes or time has come to make your own homework!

  • The Bond markets (and this includes the US bond market) are doing exactly what we have been forecasting for weeks now...bad, bad, bad!

  • World indexes are oversold and we will at least have some relief of the selling pressure and better markets...and, if the correlation stays, a weaker Dollar.

  • We are again watching the Aussie on a daily basis....a surprise could be in the make.

  • The Fix or Patriotic Retirement Plan: There recently was an article in the St. Petersburg, Florida Times. The Business Section asked readers for ideas on: "How Would You Fix the Economy?" This guy nailed it! The solution is so damn easy I have serious doubts about the IQ level of all the idiots running the country....

    Dear Mr. President,

    Please find below my suggestion for fixing America’s Economy. Instead of giving billions of dollars to companies that will squander the money on lavish parties and unearned bonuses, use the following plan.

    There are about 40 million people over 50 in the work force. Pay them $1 million each severance for early retirement with the following stipulations:

    1) They MUST retire. Forty million job openings – Unemployment fixed.
    2) They MUST buy a new American CAR. Forty million cars ordered – Auto Industry fixed.
    3) They MUST either buy a house or pay off their mortgage – Housing Crisis fixed.

    It can’t get any easier than that!!


    P.S. – Mr. President, while you’re at it, make Congress retire on Social Security and Medicare. I’ll bet both programs would be fixed pronto!

Thursday February 11, 2010

  • Today Al Gore's dummies are getting a second cold hard lesson. History books are far more revealing than most people think and it has always been extremely hazardous to 'BELIEVE' what crooked politicians try to make you believe. Internet is a great way out...but you have to make your home work!

  • The EU will not survive. But things are not bad enough and it is too early for a breakup. They will and can do a lot to keep it going as long as they can print money without restrictions. The restriction will come when time has come and we slide into the Hyperinflationary Depression. In the mean time the rescue plan cold become a bad surprise for the huge amount of shorters of the Euro.

  • The Bank of England will resume (continue) Quantitative Easing and the Pound slides again. They simply have no other option...click here for more... [remember the Pound is the Canary in the mine for the Dollar]

  • The Real Estate bear market is far from over. We don't expect a bottom before 2033. Real Estate is a High Order Capital Good and will suffer tremendously during the coming depression. A second leg down in US house prices lies dead ahead, with even larger fall is possible in the UK plus Commercial property is headed towards a debacle in both the US & the UK. One in five U.S. mortgages were underwater in Q4, real estate website Zillow.com reported this morning. Home values continued to fall, marking the 12th consecutive quarter of year-over-year declines. "The prevalence of markets in or near a double-dip situation shows that we are not yet at the bottom, in terms of home values," said Stan Humphries, Zillow chief economist.

  • And US Bonds were down today...doing exactly what our charts predicted.

Wednesday February 10, 2010

  • Wondering why the Euro is strengthening under the burden of a record of shorts? Dangerous it remains! It is amazing how misinformed the Herd is and how well the Authorities keep playing their misleading violins. Technically, this market is so imbalanced on the long side that the sheer weight of those stale longs could drop the Dollar several hundred points very quickly.

  • Financial markets are doing just what we expected....as we are not in the business of writing financial novels, today we really not have a lot to add...

  • We don't even feel like commenting the absurdity of Davos, Switzerland and  can't comment about the G7 meeting in Australia as they locked out all peekers.

  • You have to be blind not to see it: maybe it is worth mentioning we have a Cup and Handle and a Bullish flag for Natural Gas...and we have hammer candle sticks, positive divergences and bullish engulfing candles, positive MACD crossovers  and important volume spikes for many stocks and commodities we follow in the subscriber section. As usual right now the public is in denial and the Herd will jump into to game at the top of the market. I haven't seen it different for the last 35 years...I remember years ago I made a presentation in Spain telling the audience they had to sell Dollars and British Pounds and buy Gold...most of them preferred to continue to listen to their Bankers and did not follow my advice and still don't believe Gold is going to $ 1,460 and higher....meantime they lost huge on both the Dollar and Pound and regular stocks and Bonds.

  • If you still think the Authorities and Banksters are telling the truth, nothing but the truth, read following article published by DER SPIEGEL....click here for more....

  • As of May 2010 American Airlines will charge $ 8 for a blanket and a pillow...no comment.

Tuesday February 9, 2010 - Extremely dangerous Dollar -

  • We have a never ever seen record of $ 8 bn short positions against the Euro. Figures from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, which are often used as a proxy of hedge fund activity, showed investors had increased their positions against the euro to record levels in the week to February 2. Remember the market mostly moves into the direction where a maximum of participants will he harmed. It is not hard to imagine what will happen 'IF and ONCE' the trend reverses as we think it will: there will be blood on the walls! ..click here for more... [apparently many investors are unaware of the dramatic financial situation many American states are in: California, New York, Illinois and 37 other states are out of control!]

  • We warned our subscribers in time for the dangerous World Stock Markets...

  • $- Gold is steady and subscribers know what our vision is:

  • January 1999 Gold expressed in Brazilian Real went up from 350 to 600

  • Between 2002 and 2006 Gold expressed in Venezuelan Bolivars went up from 200,000 to 1700,000

  • January 2010 Gold expressed in Venezuelan Bolivars went up again from 2500 to 5000 Bolivars.

  • January 2001 the price of Gold in Argentinean Pesos went up from 300 to 600 in one month time.

  • Iceland saw similar developments and so the did England  in a lesser degree

  • Which country will be next? Japan? the USA?

Monday February 8, 2010

  • At this point any talk about a 'New World Currency' doesn't make any sense at all. As even the Dollar and the Euro won't survive because of the fact that Complex Societies and their currencies cannot and will not survive expense energy.

  • The Deficit of the US dollar is almost equal to the deficit of Greece...and the Dollar correction won't have legs. As a matter of fact, we are seeing the last Death Cat bounce.

    • California, Florida, Illinois, Ohio, Michigan, North Carolina, and New Jersey. Each has a population above 8 million people. Each has had to borrow more than a billion dollars, so far, to pay claims out of their now bankrupt unemployment insurance fund. Also, each state currently registers broad, underemployment above 15% as indicated by the U-6 measure for the States. And finally, each state is a large net importer of either oil, natural gas, electricity, or all three of these energy sources.

  • There is not a lot the Central Bankers could do during their meeting in Australia this past weekend. Except for canceling Haiti's debt [there was no way they could repay it anyhow...as well show the world that after all they are not that evil). Hopefully they brought some good wine, cigars and entertainment. The Financial and Banking system is rotten to the core and it is too late for salvage. The only thing left is to lie, is MOPE and BS. The coming Hyperinflationary depression will proof our vision is correct and Prechter doesn't understand the basic mechanism of Inflation, Deflation and Hyperinflation.

  • During the process of Hyperinflation Fiat paper money and Bonds (which are nothing more than an option to buy worthless fiat paper money) will once more become worthless. History shows over and over again that people trusting Government (and Banksters) each time loose all their savings. Last time it happened was before, during and after World War II.  We are about to live the next time soon!

  • Not that many places to hide. Whether or not the World Stock markets  - EXPRESSED in NOMINAL terms - will just correct or slide further down. Therefore it is not really important and it doesn't deserve that we spent a lot of energy finding out how they will behave. Expressed in Real Money or Barbaric Gold they will Crash!  This is beyond any doubt.

  • American Republicans are pulling the Tea Parties in their camp. If they succeed the Tea Parties will fail to bring a fresh political wind to the USA. Having said this, Sarah Palin could well become the 1st female President of the USA...click here for more...

  • Farmers protesting higher taxes blocked the road leading to the Kulata border crossing between Bulgaria and Greece.  Greek politicians fall into the same idiot abyss Argentina has fallen in. This is how the stupid politicians lead a country into a revolution and/or War. Belgian readers hopefully remember Belgian was the result of the 1830 Depression and a revolt because higher taxes were levied on bread. More taxation and regulation it is...until the people revolt...history shows this pattern repeating itself over and over again...a pity This time it won't be different. Politicians never learn from history!

Saturday February 6, 2010

  • The Dollar index is bumping into the top boundary of its Bear Market trend line. A mirror image of Gold and stocks it is. Amazing is to see that when the Dollar goes up, ALL markets (stock markets, commodities, gold and silver) come down and vice versa. I don't remember to have seen this kind of action in the past. Apart from deleveraging in the 2008 fashion (be aware there is more commercial and private real estate pain unfolding) one can attribute the actual market behavior to Manipulation (PPteam, Exchange stabilization fund, ECB, Propaganda, Mope)

  • EXCELLENT! Right now the Neckline of the huge HS formation for Gold is being tested.  This action will confirm next short term objective for $-Gold. Once more our Point and Figures chart for Gold expressed in Canadian Dollars is a school book example of what we are seeing right now for $-Gold. PF charts have been a very reliable tool during the past 35 years I have been operating on the financial markets. They rarely give false signals and are excellent in forecasting trend reversals. Whatever the Authorities and Bankers do, there is very little they actually can do without the PF charts revealing it. The least I can say is that the battle between Gold Bulls and Gold bears is a bloody one and the outcome will amaze a lot of people!

  • Once more we cannot stress enough how important it is to check our charts of Gold in Swiss Franc, Yen, SA-Rand, Aussie, Euro, Canadian Dollar and Pound Sterling....what we had this week was merely a Gold storm in an American glass!

  • The Euro/Dollar has completed its ABC wave...click here for more...

  • The Gold and Silver mines have an important message for the market and for Gold and Silver. Having said this, markets are very, very emotional...

  • Markets were extremely emotive only for certain sectors, but Platinum, Natural Gas, Coal, etc...were very steady. This rings a bell!

  • Yesterday at the closing the PPTeam intervened in the Stock markets. We wrote it earlier. The Authorities and Banksters CANNOT allow the markets to crash as it would whipe out what is left of the Pension funds and would accelerate the meltdown of the financial system.

  • A Chinese wild card? What 'if' the Chinese central bank decides to buy the other 200 Tonnes of Gold the IMF has for sale?

  • Vietnam admits rigging the price of Gold as a currency intervention (Dong). Gold  is part of the economic system in Vietnam, is used to store savings and to buy Real Estate. The battle of Gold is a battle against the Authorities and Banksters and a battle they are going to loose. History shows they always have...you can only lie so long to the people!

  • Lies, lies and more lies...or this is how the Authorities do it: an small incorrect Unemployment number is published with a lot of noise....and next the really bad figures come as an appendix or a correction with no publicity....click here for more...

  • If politicians had it that easy to convince the Herd that there was Global Heating, how easy is it to convince the Herd the recovery is around the corner, the banking system is healthy and Worthless fiat paper money is still worth something!? With the west wing of the White House being snowed under, the great global warming hoax has collapsed...click here for more...

  • Last but not least, yesterday was Friday and so far only 1 Bank closed down:   1st American State Bank of Minnesota, Hancock, MN

Since the beginning of 2009 our Portfolio grew by 50% expressed in fiat Dollars/Euro's...and "12,78%" expressed in Real money or Gold. Important is that we stayed away from CASH and out of Bonds (Treasuries and Gilts) and we haven't really seen the end of the Bull wave for our positions. Gold has clearly outperformed most Equities and this is visible when checking the performance table. Diversification is preached by Bankers for obvious reasons but is not always a good thing!!!!


Goldonomic, Florida, USA - +1 (772)-905-2491