If History Were A Perfect Guide, Stocks Would Be in A World of Trouble.

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Thursday-Friday, November 14/15, 2019 - Has WW III began?

Updated Sections: Recession Proof shares, Recession Proof (Hold), Oil shares,

This eye-opening video explains what is going on in Syria (and the Middle East) and helps us to better understand the geopolitical situation. The reality is completely different from what the Mainstream Media are selling.  Also, it is NOT an accident that IS-terrorists are send back to Europe...and the next Terrorists will be called a different name...

What do Historic Debt levels and Poor Savers have in common?

 "137 million Americans are struggling with medical debt."

poor savers

 historic debt levels nov 2019

Today's global debt levels are almost as high as during and after the last World War. Americans have maxed their credit cards, all over the world, the Middle Class is getting poor...This is the REALITY behind the creation of Fiat Money out of thin air and historic high debt levels.

As usual and as history learns, people won't listen to reason and won't act until it's too late. And those who listen prefer to believe the FAIRY TALES told by the authorities. That is why THE HERD gets stranded each time there is a WAR, CRASH, FINANCIAL CRISIS,...

The Baby Boomers are becoming the Pension Boomers. Terrible is that they are becoming the POOR pension boomers and that their financial situation will become worse over the coming years as Real Estate prices crash, Bond markets crash and become worthless Stocks crash,...

Important Fundamentals:

  • Is Deutsche Bank the Next ‘Lehman Brothers’? Conscious of the stakes, the banks have already begun their process of rationalization. In 10 years (2008-2018), already 600,000 banking jobs have been lost only in Eurozone. The first German bank, Deutsche Bank, has announced this summer that it will cut 18,000 jobs worldwide by 2022 as part of a € 7.4 billion restructuring plan. German financial services giant Deutsche Bank AG is one of the largest and most important economic institutions in the world. The bank is now having to take drastic measures to stay afloat. Investors everywhere should note that if such a critical piece of the too-big-to-fail banking system falters, it could trigger another global economic collapse and stock market crash. Maybe there is a connection between the DB problems and the REPO's ?!
  • Some Gold-Silver traders have ...Click here for more
  • Today we have 700,000 open interest contracts trading on the COMEX or the paper market is becoming disconnected from reality. The explosion of the open interest shows how hard they are trying to keep the price of gold down.
  • India starts buying... Click here for more
  • This is an interesting video by...Click here for more

Important Technicals:

  • A Random Walk through the sections: Recession Proof & Recession Hold shares are positive: NO DOUBT that (at least) some...Click here for more
  • Eventually, shorters have to cover their positions. This is so for OIL, but also for GOLD. Few remember that the Gold Pool died because Shorters had to cover and there was no physical gold that could be delivered. Today, the OPEN INTEREST is historically high and any mishap could result in the end of the PPT (Plunge Protection Team) and Gold Shorters (Riggers) and send the price of Gold and Silver to the Moon...  Click here for more

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Wednesday, November 13, 2019 - Full Moon and a Bank Holiday in Europe (November 11): the beginning of a new cycle..

Updated Sections: R-Gold & R/$/€, Kr-Gold & Kr/$/€, Yuan-Gold & Yuan/$/€, 
Rupee-Gold & Rupee/$/€, Bio-Tech & Pharma,

full moon nov11
A Full Moon and a Sell-climax pointing to an imminent price reversal in the Gold & Silver sector?! -  

Gold saw a huge sell-off last week: the precious metal was down by $49 or 3.2% to close at $1,463 as of the final trade on the New York COMEX on Friday afternoon.

During declines as we witnessed last week, it can be helpful to remember the big picture: gold broke out of a six-year basing pattern below $1,434 per ounce last August. After six years of grinding prices before then, it is unlikely that the final top is in yet after a single one-month surge above the resistance zone.

What we are witnessing now is a retest of the breakout. A retest is simply a term that describes behavior in which the market is literally asking former buyers: “Are you sure you meant to buy back then?”

Once the retest is complete, higher targets are expected. Long-term investors should take some comfort in the present situation: it would be extremely rare for a 6-year base breakout to end with a simple one-month surge. We are now in the retest process. 

At the height of the Danske Bank 2012 scandal, the lender started offering gold bars to wealthy clients to help them keep their fortunes hidden, according to documents seen by Bloomberg. The bank’s Estonian branch, which was already wiring billions of client dollars to offshore accounts, told a select group of customers, mostly from Russia, that they could now also convert their money into gold bars and coins, according to the documents, which date back to the middle of 2012.

Aside from offering a hedge against risk, gold is a way for clients to achieve “anonymity” . Gold also ensures “portability” of assets, according to an internal presentation of the Danske Bank dated June 2012.

"When optimism is in oversupply, the stock market may be primed for a fall. The VIX, which measures market volatility, is already near the lowest level it’s seen since July."

Important Fundamentals:

  • The company does not make money: xxx xxxx. During the third quarter of 2019, GP lost two cents per share as general, and administrative expenses offset mine operating earnings. The company also suffered foreign exchange losses for the quarter related to Brazilian real forward contracts due to the weakening value of the Brazilian currency against the US dollar...Click here for more

Important Technicals:

  • We had a SELL-CLIMAX for Gold & Silver. At the same time, ...Click here for more
  • When optimism is in oversupply, the stock market may be primed for a fall...Click here for more
  • Our PF-charts in the section for Bio and Pharma doesn't spell any good. Many MATURING BEARISH WEDGES...Click here for more
Click here for more Click here for more
This was the Pullback last time... This is the Pullback now...


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Monday-Tuesday November 11/12, 2019 - Next Price Target For Gold Is $1,800?

Updated Sections: Miners-Gold vs XAU/SPX, Market Indexes in Real Money(Gold, 
Long Term Charts, €-Gold & €/$, Aussie-Gold & Aussie/$/€, Swiss-Gold & Swiss/$/€,
Can-Gold & Can/$/€, ¥-Gold & ¥/$/€, £-Gold & £/$/€,

China's debt ratio stands at 300% of GDP (Gross National Product).  Total debt in the USA is 330% of GDP.  Be aware that China's economy will crash when Western  economies are and that they will also be forced to monetize their debt...and monetizing debt = hyperinflation.

"There is only so much REAL value in the world and it looks greater because of DEBT and Inflation."

Authorities start to understand that "Devaluations of currencies" are not working. As these only bring some short term relief, they have to rely on yet another instrument or TRADE WARS. But 'Trade Wars' also work for a limited amount of time only as quota's and trade restrictions are met by similar measures of other countries. Therefore, traditionally each cycle always end with a SHOOTING WAR

Each stadium (from Currency over Trade to Shooting faze) overlaps the next one.  The currency war started after World War II and became official in 1971 (when Nixon closed the Gold window).  Trade Wars we have between the USA and China, between the UK and the EU,...Shooting Wars-Revolutions we already have in North-Africa and the Middle East, in Hong Kong, in Chile, in Venezuela, in Bolivia,...The first signs of an EU-revolution we already have in France: Yellow Jackets; between the UK and the EU: Brexit,...

What we don't know, is WHEN this will start to have a serious impact on our daily live and  we  will   start to experience the negative consequences: capital controls, war/revolution taxation, freedom of movement, freedom of speech,...

Important Fundamentals:

  • Repo: roughly $1 Trillion moves overnight. The Repo-market affects the Short Term interest Rates, while the Treasury action (bn $60 per month) affects the medium and long term interest rates.

  • Impossible to recover from Repo.

Important Technicals:

  • Currency wars seem to have come to an end...certainly for the time being.  The are replaced by Trade Wars.
  • Last week, we had a delusional market behavior in the Gold and Silver Sector...Click here for more
  • Banks are in a VERY bad shape...Especially European banks.

DB 2000 19

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Friday,  November 8, 2019 - Bullish Key Reversals on our Candle charts?

Updated Sections: Royalties, Majors, Juniors,  , , 


As we called years ago, we still have no Brexit and no cigar.  This time they used the weapon of "elections" to postpone it once more. What will be the next excuse? A new Referendum? The EU-gang would - because of a Brexit - lose 1/3rd of its income. This loss would have to be made good by taxing "more" the remaining member states like The Netherlands, Belgium,...

What is about to happen in the UK is a precursor for the whole Western World. And it looks BAD, BAD, BAD...Marxists are selling themselves as Democrats. And you know what? IT WORKS! People go for immediate satisfaction. They just LOVE Bread and Games (social security and Olympics, Soccer, Tennis,...). Everything doesn't matter. This is especially so for the Millenniums.

"Shit happens when socialists win elections."

Only the INVASION by Barbarians (mainly in Europe) seems to get some attention.  Not the first time Rome is on fire. This is the cycle of History and the cycle of life. We have experienced how this end like in the DDR, the USSR, Congo, Zimbabwe, South Africa, Venezuela,...and a similar experience we shall have in Western Europe and probably also in the USA. Certainly so if next year a Democrat President is elected.

Question: Is a Marxist government soon going to rule the UK? The UK Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has launched his election campaign and set out his Marxist policies. The UK has been ungovernable since 2017, with a hung parliament and there will now be an election on December 12th. The whole country knows that Corbyn is a Marxist but very few understand the consequences of Marxism. But Corbyn has on the first day of his campaign clearly spelled out what Marxism really means. In true Marxist style, Corbyn attacked some of the UK billionaires and named them individually.

Over the coming decade, governments and their central banks are going to destroy their national (Fiat) currencies. The average guy—if he’s able to save at all—saves in dollars, euros, or yen, etc. He’s going to be wiped out. The destruction of the Currencies will wipe out the savings of most people and this will impact the Real Estate Bubble severely.  Those having DEBT at that time will suffer most because the debt will have to be repaid with money having less purchasing power.

liquidity trapLow and negative interest rates are a HUGE trap: Don't listen to the tunes of low and negative interest rates. Best is to ensure you have NO DEBT and to sail through this depression WITH NO DEBT at all. In all cases, we strongly advise against making more debt.

Even with a RESET, Debt will never go away and it will become harder to pay back your debt. Keeping DEBT and buying Gold with those funds is dangerous speculation because down the line, you may be forced to sell your gold at a time where you will need it most.

Important Fundamentals:

  • The fundamental problem with monetary and credit expansion is it replaces random market action, the non-cyclical case, with coordinated action. All production and consumption are stimulated at the same time by monetary expansion. Instead of Schumpeter’s creative destruction occurring randomly over time, it is amplified and bunched into a cyclical crisis.
  • There must be no doubt that central bankers create the conditions for their own downfall. They are entirely responsible for a cycle of credit expansion and contraction that leads to what is generally referred to as the business cycle, implying the blame for it lies with the animal spirits in free markets. This is incorrect.
  • successive credit cycles to become increasingly destabilizing because the distortions created by monetary policy in previous crises are never allowed to wash out of the system.
  • We're going to have a crash someday, and the more money they print to delay it, the bigger the crash...but a crash we eventually will have...click here for more

 "Successive credit cycles to become increasingly destabilizing."

Important Technicals:

  • Most xxxxx are a "Screaming Buy" at present levels. The following shares are also a buy at present level...

Click here for more

see sections Royalties, Majors and Juniors for all charts.

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Wednesday/Thursday,  November 6/7 - 30 years ago the "wall of Democracy" - build by the GDR fell as the country went bankrupt!

Updated Sections: World Stock Market Indexes , , 

trabantOnly 30 years ago the Wall of Democracy came down. It signaled the END of the social (communist) regime. The end of the Trabants which one had to order 10 years in advance; the end of the STASI-police which spied on every citizen in the republic; the end of shortages. 30 years ago, the Deutsche DEMOCRATIC Republic DDR could no longer afford the high debt level...the country went bankrupt...It was the end of the same DEMOCRATIC LIES they are selling again today. And believe me, because people refuse to learn HISTORY, the West is about to experience the same over again. This time, however, it looks like the EASTERN side of the Berlin Wall might be spared.

"People don't learn out of their mistakes and are therefore forced to repeat history."

Today in the West, people are also made to believe that they live in a "Democracy". And a "Democracy" it is...as long as you understand that this "Democracy"  is Socialism and Communism.  Authorities are, just like they did 50 years ago, doing whatever they can to kill the economy, to destroy and chase away the best entrepreneurs, to destroy the banking system and to kill the exiting Fiat Money system. Just like at the time of the USSR and the GDR the main weapon used is DEBT.

Today we have QE (creation and monetization of debt) on steroids. The FED is expanding the money supply twice as fast and when it was admitting it was doing QE. $250 bn in the past 7 weeks.

"This is my EXPERIENCE: the more politicians  LIE, the closer we are to the catharsis!"

Only 5% of the world knows and understands what is happening and what will happen!!! once it happens, it will happen VERY QUICKLY. The chaos is coming and it's gonna be huge. Once it happens, you won't be able to get out. What could bring down the financial markets?

  1. a spike in inflation. From 1,5% to 3-4% in the way it is measured today.
  2. a recession which blows up the junk bond market...when that happens it's all over and its gonna happen very quickly. At that time the market is gonna fall at least by 60 %.
  3. as there are no more fiscal and monetary arrows to rescue the economy the Fed panics....and creates even more money out of thin air.
  4. a crisis in the Commercial Real Estate sector.

"The financial system is rotten – time to own YOUR personal Fort Knox."

Only Idiots (and Lagarde) think they can create jobs by destroying savings. I almost threw up in my car as I listened to Christine Lagarde (ECB ) mislead the public. Jobs come from savings. Jobs need capital, and capital investment is funded by savings. When you destroy savings you also destroy jobs! Note: Did they choose a woman to destroy the EU?  Lagarde does only create demand for gold.

Important Fundamentals:

  • xxxxxxx is known as the Roodepoort Rocket because of the way its results and share price take off when the gold price rises. This is because the company is a marginal producer and there’s high leverage to the price of gold.
  • xxxxxxx reported earnings of $3.17 billion in the third quarter, down from $6.24 billion a year earlier. Earnings fall by half.
  • xxxxxx production hits a record high. The co. saw its output rise to 3.04 MB/d in the third quarter, up 8 percent from a year earlier. Profits stood at $3.02 billion.
  • xxxxxx said that a deteriorating in the economy could hit returns, and could put a $25 billion share buyback plan into doubt. Shell beat earnings estimates, but its share price fell anyway.
  • Capital controls in Argentina (again) after the Argentina peso drops 25% after the election of last month (and stupid Argentinians brought back the Kirchner regime).
  • We have a historic high in Open interest (Gold). Not that this is important. Experience learned that Open interest figures in Gold are not really relevant.
  • Stock Markets are dangerously overvalued.

Click here for more

Important Technicals:

  • Still no cigar. The Stock Market Indexes are bouncing into Resistance levels and some are even making new records. However, we do have these dangerous BEARISH DIVERGENCES. Also, indexes did not break decisively their overhead resistance levels and support of Trading volume fails. Technically speaking these levels are SELL rather than a BUY!
  • Gold and Silver continue to consolidate and cycle-analysis tell us we may have to wait until AFTER November 11, 2019, before the uptrend resumes. Time to up your positions.
  • US Dollar is struggling to hold its mid-range position and US Treasury Bonds is going busters.

Click here for more 

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Monday/Tuesday,  November 4/5  - Real Estate is a "superbubble"!

Updated Sections: Investment Pyramid, $-Gold, Silver, US-Dollar ,

lagardeChristine Lagarde, the New head of ECB makes clear what's coming. “We should be happier to have a job than to have our savings protected,” said Lagarde. Make sure your savings are in #gold & not the #euro to protect your purchasing power from central bank currency debasement.  

“We should be happier to have a job than to have our savings protected,”

Negative interest rates are just a warning. Mrs. Lagarde knows all too well what is coming. Whoever doesn't get out of FIAT MONEY (and this includes Cryptocurrencies) will just lose all of his savings. To add injury to injury (and only a few people see this coming) the Great Depression of the 21st Century will (probably) come with a Civil War, maybe a Religion War and/or a World War. Signs we already have all over the world.

The Great Depression of the 21st Century and there are not so many instruments left to protect your savings.

It is becoming obvious to many professionals in Europe that the European Real Estate Bubble is about to deflate. [video with subtitles] Many don't suspect that Demographics or the Aging Baby Boomers will also start to impact the Real Estate market in a negative way.

 “Communism and Socialism are only superficial variations of the same monstrous theme—collectivism.” - Ayn Rand

Dramatic is that today Socialism and Communism is sold as "Democracy".

Important Fundamentals:

  • Important is to understand that what many calls 'the Reset" will freeze up the Financial World (like happened in Cyprus).
  • Bear in mind that they call "digital money" will only postpone the Catharsis and make "the Reset" worse.
  • Because of the structure of modern logistics (no or little stock), the Catharsis will come with empty shelves,... click here for more

Important Technicals:

  • The Gold & Silver sector is doing exactly what we predicted. Following Miners show a breakout and are a buy at the present level.

Click here for more

Silver candle a1

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Friday,  November 1st  - Stocks are more overvalued today than they were in 1929!

Updated Sections: , ,

all politicians suckThe lack of liquidity in the repo market is an anomaly. The fact is that there are not enough funds to meet the requirements of the market. That pretty much forces the Fed & ECB (Central Banks) to step in and provide as much liquidity as required to ensure orderly markets. As a matter of fact, today while Central Bankers PRETEND there is no QE, they are injecting MORE FIAT MONEY than at the time when they admitted there was QE!

Why doesn’t anyone stand up to tell the world we are heading into The Abyss?! Well, for the simple reason that no politician can tell the truth. Because if they did, they wouldn’t be elected. The principal purpose of any politician is to buy votes and to get votes you can never speak the truth.

"The main goal of any politician is to buy votes and to get votes they lie and cheat!"

It is an incontrovertible fact that all the fiat money that is created by governments, central banks, and commercial banks is totally worthless and therefore false. If a government prints money out of thin air to cover deficit spending, that money has ZERO value since all the work required to create it was to press a button on a computer.

We also know that the money has zero value because no bank or central bank is prepared to pay interest on deposits. Instead, because money is worthless these bankers want to be paid to hold the money. It is really quite logical. Why should you pay interest on money which has zero value?

"Why should you pay interest on money which has zero value?"

Stocks fell by 90% in 1929. Today Stocks are more overvalued today than they were in 1929. PE (Price-Earning ration) was 15 in 1929, today it is hovering around 30...or one is willing to pay 30 times the profit to acquire a stock of a corporation.

When adjusted for inflation, gold has averaged a 1.8% return since 1929 (slightly higher than stocks), and a 6.7% return since 1999-- more than 3x as much as stocks. But unlike stocks, people who own gold haven’t had to put up with the same risks. No shady brokers. No bullshit. No Enron scandal. They earned 3x more than the stock market-- with the added benefit of being able to hold their investment right in their own hands.

About 25% of total government debt around the world has a negative interest rate. It’s all from European countries. However, the US may not be far behind. The Fed has already started lowering rates despite there not being a recession. What would happen if US government debt, and the rest of the world for that matter, all went into the negative-yielding territory? If the correlation between negative-yielding government debt and the gold price maintains the same relationship, what would that do to the gold price? The answer is simple. Gold would Skyrocket. As the chart below demonstrates, we’d see gold go over $3,000/oz. January 2016 was the beginning of the correlation between the gold price and the total dollar amount of negative interest rate (yielding) government debt in the world.

 neg rates gold

Important Fundamentals:

  • xxxxx doubles first-quarter pre-tax earnings on buoyant gold price conditions. First-quarter earnings doubled year-on-year. Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization came in at R326m ...
  • Click here for more

Important Technicals:

  • This is what happened in the Gold & Silver markets at the time Powell (the USA) cut interest rates by 0.25% this week. The action by the PPT (Plunge Protection Team) was undone in less than 5 minutes time. Only alert professionals noticed it. A similar Whipsaw we had for Silver...click here for more

oct 30 2019

  • Note the Bullish xxxxx saucer formation.

Click here for more


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