RT @AukePvv: Harald Benink, hoogleraar Bankwezen: "Als Nederland uit de euro zou stappen, wordt 'de nieuwe gulden’ meteen 50 tot 75 procent…
Will Gold & Silver shine in 2018!?
Wednesday January 31, 2018 - Abandoned America or a pre-1929 tale out of Florida
Updated Sections: Real Estate in the USA, Real Estate in Canada ,
Abandoned America: The Foreclosure Crisis in Lehigh Acres (West Coast) , Florida and exactly the same story we had in Florida during the years preceding the Great 1929 Depression.
- Carrying cash when you travel: what are the limits and what are the fines.
- Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust: We are pleased to introduce the Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust which began trading on Tuesday, Jan. 16, on the NYSE Arca (Symbol: CEF) and the Toronto Stock Exchange (Symbol: CEF.U in U.S. Dollars). The launch of the Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust marks the successful completion of Sprott’s acquisition of the common shares of Central Fund of Canada. Central Fund of Canada’s shareholders are now unit holders of Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust...more in the subscriber's section
- The US-Dollar is OVERSOLD...Gold somewhat OVERBOUGHT...give it a week or so for the markets to digest it all....more in the subscriber's section
Copyright, All Rights Reserved - The contents of this report may NOT be copied, reproduced, or distributed without the explicit written consent of Goldonomic
Tuesday January 30, 2018 - we are on the road to hyperinflation!
Updated Sections: Indian Rupee-Gold & INR/$, Yuan-Gold & Yuan/$/€, Kro-Gold & Kro/$/€,
Rand-Gold & Zar/$/€ , £-Gold & €/$/£ ,
The Mainstream Media is in the hands of Governments. And we all know what Erdogan has done and is doing in Turkey and what happens to the Media and Journalists who are not nice to him. Government knows the power of the Mainstream Media and knows how easy it is to control the Stupid DEMOCRATIC HERD (or 8 people out of 10 around you) with their help. This is the reason WHY during a coup or a war Radio & Television buildings are first taken. Because the Internet, Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, ... are increasingly becoming "the modern" sources of NEWS, Government will do EVERYTHING within its power to get those media under control. And what is more convenient than imposing fines !?
- People who have started to apply the correct investment policy in 2011 will need some time before they feel good again...But as usual (as we know out of experience) more people start following in 2011 than they were in 2017. A similar experience applied to people who started to apply our investment pocicy in 2007/08. These investors had to wait until 2009/10 before they started to feel good again.
- People who invest SHORT TERM are always better off in some Casino in Las Vegas. Not only does Short Term take a lot of energy and time, but the long term outcome is statistically always negative.
- There is a thing called “history” which shows when a currency weakens or even collapses, stock markets, (gold), and assets in general skyrocket in that currency …just look at the results of Weimar, Zimbabwe or even Venezuela, their stock markets WENT UP in their own local currencies… not down.
- “Printing” currency does not produce prosperity… if it did there would be no poverty anywhere on the planet. This is historical fact, not opinion. Dollars, Euro's, e.o. only promise to pay more dollars and “settlement” is never really made. With gold, because it is no one else’s liability, IS final settlement… (but you already know this of course). This is just one more difference between a “currency” and “money” more in the subscriber's section
- Remember that England is our Canary in the Mine for what to expect for the US-Dollar and Euro...see our new PF-chart for £-Gold and technical Target-calculations. Add the figure to the top and bottom of the trading range for Target(s).
- Mind the new support & resistance levels in the updated sections.
- xxx xxxx has broken out. See PF chart for targets.
.....more in the subscriber's section
Copyright, All Rights Reserved - The contents of this report may NOT be copied, reproduced, or distributed without the explicit written consent of Goldonomic
Monday January 29, 2018 - Economic Reality was and still is that the Economy is not healthy and not recovering!
Updated Sections: Inflation Index ,
Trump is definitively walking away from the RED colored politics of the Clinton's, Bush & Obama and the Mainstream Media & Hollywood don't like it. But we know the policy at least tries serve the RIGHT & CORRECT cause. At least in the short run. This is what every NORMAL business man would do the moment he takes over a company in bankruptcy.
Trump does what has to be done: Fiscal advantages for American co's repatriating their production back to the USA, tax advantages for American co's keeping their production within the USA, Import restrictions (tariffs) on 'Made in China' goods and a lower Dollar to TRY to bring down the trade deficit (this won't happen...the deficit will go up instead) and make exports more attractive. Also, a lower Dollar will feed inflation figures... He also tries to cut expenditures: less free gifts to NATO, the U.N. and to countries like Afhanistan, Palestine,... and the US walks away from the expensive cost-implications of the Global Warming Church....
Some of these measures (ex. tariffs) work only in the short run...but at this point the USA may not have a lot of options left. This policy will push PRICE INFLATION up and make the recession worse. As a result, in a couple of months from now, they will have to print even MORE money...A vicious circle it is! See Jim's Formula.
This is what happened over the last weeks. Remember that The LONGER it takes for Gold to break out, the HARDER it will go up. (see $-Gold section for targets)
The manipulation of the Gold market will work until it does no longer....this day the price of Gold will probably SPIKE up. What we have now is more or less what we had in the 1960's & 70's. (most of today's investors were not born at that time)
This is the worst start the DOLLAR has since 1987!
- The leverage in the economic system has become so extreme; investors have no idea of the disaster that is going to take place during the next stock market crash.
- The collapse of the U.S. Housing and Investment Banking Industry in 2008 and ensuing economic turmoil was a mere WARM-UP for STAGE 2 of the continued disintegration of the global financial and economic system.
- The US-Stock Markets sit in a FINAL UPLEG. Technicians call it LEG#5 . This will be the final upleg which will see yet more new all-time highs...more in the subscriber's section
- CBR-commodity index (see inflation section) achieves a BULLISH breakout and we hereby have a follow through of last week's Trend change. Also see PF-chart below. Note the resistance level (red line)
- 10-year Treasury yield is a 3 year high. More important, it broke above its 2.60% – 2.62% resistance level, see chart. This tells us rates are indeed headed higher. The 10 year yield’s next target is now at 3%, but a mega trend reversal will not be confirmed until the 30 year yield rises and stays above 3.05%. Increasing, it looks like this is going to happen, which would mark a huge change from low interest rates to rising rates in the years ahead. That’s why we advice avoiding bonds.
- German & British yields also turned up this past week.
- US-Dollar extremely OVERSOLD & Gold & Silver overbought. A consolidation or small correction is possible...more in the subscriber's section
Copyright, All Rights Reserved - The contents of this report may NOT be copied, reproduced, or distributed without the explicit written consent of Goldonomic
Friday January 26, 2018 - Depression also hits Europe as retail sector has to close down shops and dump labor force...this is only the beginning!
Updated Sections: $-Gold, Silver , US-Dollar, €-Gold & €/$
The Depression also hits Europe and retail sector has to close down shops and dump labor force. The record-high rate of store closures that rocked the retail industry last year is expected to spill into 2018, with more than 3,600 closures already on tap. Walgreens, Toys R Us, and Gap, Sears, Macy's,... are among the many retailers expected to shutter hundreds of stores in 2018. Some companies' closures will take effect immediately, such as Sears and Kmart, which plan to close a total of 63 stores in January.
The tsunami of store closings is also hitting Europe. While European Authorities keep pretending the economy is growing, “Carrefour” one of Europe's main retailers is closing several shops and dumping thousand of employees. While we were already forecasting these closures lat year, no European Politician didn't expect this to happen...!? The politicians are either fully retarded, either bloody liars.
As we explained several times Real purchasing power keeps coming down. Governments can cook the inflation indexes but can't cook the reality of life. Either Carrefour and other retailers MUST close down shops, either they will go bankrupt. To add insult to injury, employees are going on strike to protest the action...try to explain this to your best friend!
Our forecasts are becoming a reality: rising interest rates, sliding bond prices, a lower Stock Market, a falling US-Dollar, rising Energy prices, a strong Gold & Silver sector...and a weaker economy.
- Those who started following us in 2015-2016-2017 and today will be off than those who did in 2011...but this is a never ending story. In the Medium to Long run it is totally unimportant WHEN you start to implement an investment strategy. Most important is that you do it in time and BEFORE you run into serious damage/losses. The irony (and reality of life) is that more people started to follow us in 2011 than did in 2017. People like to BUY into strength and SELL into weakness while an advised investor does exactly the opposite. Emotion and Greed are often stronger than LOGIC.more in the subscriber's section
- xxxxx (xxx) at a 15 month high.
- more in the subscriber's section
Thursday January 25, 2018: Political Specialists in Davos pretend modern economic indicators are incorrect and want a change!?
Updated Sections: $-Gold ,
Markets are an illusion. The illusory Dow Jones hoovers at an all-time monthly high. The Dow sits 63% above the 2000 high whilst the Euro Dow 50 stocks are down 45% in the same period and with Emerging Markets down 36%, Brazil and Hong Kong down 35%, Nikkei down 25% and Shanghai down 49% all since 2014-15. With corporate profits declining fast, with current account and budget deficits for half a century, with 95 million people not in the workforce, almost 50 million on food stamps, with Q2 GDP at 1.2% (if real inflation rate was applied GDP would be negative) and with exponentially growing debts of over $200 trillion (incl. unfunded liabilities), you wonder what US investors are smoking.
Stock markets in general tend to totally ignore reality and US stocks in particular are living on a different planet. The Schiller P/E is now 27, with the average at 16. There is no question that the US stock market is in bubble territory. We just have to wait until some event kicks open the rotten door and the Dow Jones crashes in a 1929 style. All wise noses who keep playing these stock markets will wake up some morning and after watching the NEWS, they will feel a strong urge to jump of a bridge...
In spite of the manipulation of gold and gold stocks, over time gold will reveal the truth. It has done so for 6,000 years. Actually the massively inflated US stock market is underperforming in real terms in spite of making new highs (see section for Stock Markets expressed in Real Money or Gold). Since December 2015, the Dow is down 19% against gold. This puts the Dow/Gold ratio at 13.6. The Dow is in a long-term down trend against gold since 1999: down + 70% in the last 17 years. This ratio will at least reach the 1980 low of 1/1, but probably overshoot to at least 0.5/1. Will this mean gold at $10,000 and the Dow at 5,000, or will it reach the hyperinflationary level of 40,000 Dow, which would make gold at least $80,000? Only the future can tell....
- A TWO percent decline in xxxxxx production from South African and an increase in demand would create a 275,000 ounce supply deficit during 2018, said the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) in its third quarter report today.
- Against gold stocks, the Dow is down 55% over the last 7 months. We are likely to see this index reach the 2011 level at least. This means that the Dow will come down another 72% vs the HUI gold index. more in the subscriber's section
- SURPRISE...xxxx may will continue its bull run (2nd short term leg) all the way to $1480.
- SURPRISE...xxxx and a double top breakout and 2nd upleg (see $-Gold section).
- xxxxx (xxx) is breaking out and target is $42 (see recession proof shares) more in the subscriber's section
Wednesday January 24, 2018 - Debt will ultimately destroy the system!
Updates Sections: Long Term Commodity charts ,Inflation Index ,
Debt will ultimately be the destructor of the system. It always has and always will. A good roadmap, a decent scenario is welcome and Nomi has a point. Those who understand don't mind that the price of Gold & Silver doesn't go up...
Try to understand this: Deutsche Bank is Bankrupt...and so is the Societe Generale and the Credit Agricole, and many others. European banks in particular are in a VERY bad shape. And yet, people go on like nothing will happen. As usual, people will react when it is too late.
- It's no use to run...one has to arrive IN TIME. Those who are late, will loose it all.
- xxxx xxxx (xxxx) exports have climbed sharply compared to last year, with 59 ships carrying 204 Bcf since November, compared to 28 ships carrying 91 Bcf last year.China’s switch from coal to natural gas is adding a lot of demand to the global gas market, pushing up xxx prices to three-year highs (see section Natural Gas for more)
- xxx xxx (xxxx) surged on news that the Trump administration was putting tariffs on solar panels. The duties will reach as high as 30 percent on solar equipment (see section Coal, Solar & Rare metals for more) - more in the subscriber's section
- Gold moves up but Silver BLASTED...as expected. $-Gold nears another 5 month high. more in the subscriber's section
Tuesday January 23, 2018 - Those who don't remember, don't study the past are condemned to repeat it.
Those who don't remember and don't study history are condemned to repeat it.... and 80% of "We The People" don't know history and don't feel like LEARNING history.
The MID-BEAR-CYCLE-CORRECTION of Real Estate prices has matured. We expect US-Real Estate prices to resume their SECULAR BEAR TREND in 2018 under pressure of Higher Interest Rates and Lower Spendable Income. We also expect that Real Estate prices will initiate their 1st leg of a Secular Bear Market trend in countries where prices experienced a BUY CLIMAX in 2018 : Canada, Belgium,...
This chart clearly shows the BUY CLIMAX (people are convinced Real Estate prices will continue to rise), the 1st leg DOWN, the Halfway Correction and the 2nd leg Down which starts NOW.
- Stock Markets (especially in the USA) are OVERBOUGHT, and sentiment is extremely BULLISH,...more in the subscriber's section
- xxx xxxx – had a breakout. Our PF target is $22 - $28
- for the 1st time ever the Dow Jones Industrials has spend a whole Quarter ABOVE its UPPER BOLINGER band. IT does demonstrate there is a lgreat deal of exiburance in the financial markets = CAUTION!...more in the Subscriber's section
Monday January 22, 2018 - We finally have a trend reversal of the Interest Rates and this has far reaching implications for all investors.
Updated Sections: Pharma & Bio - Average Return since Dec 2013 is +20% per year , Bank & Financial shares ,
Cape Town enters Mad Max territory. Residents will have to go to one of some 200 municipal water points where they can collect a maximum of 25 liters (6.6 gallons) a day. Armed guards will be standing by to keep the peace and prevent anyone from taking more than their share.
The South African city of Cape Town has less than 90 days worth of water in its reservoirs, putting it on track to be the first major city in the world to run out of water. Taps in the seaside metropolis of four million could soon run dry.
While Venezuela is running out of food stocks and even gasoline, South Africa is running out of Electricity and Water and Blacks are singing that the “White man must die”.
The South African economy has endured years of mismanagement under Zuma’s administration with the net result that the national power utility is barely fit for purpose and educational achievement is worse than during the apartheid era for black children.
South Africa’s state-owned power utility, Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd., could default on its debt. Eskom is the biggest recipient of state guarantees at a time when domestic power demand is the lowest in more than 10 years . The company needs $1.6 billion of funding by the end of its fiscal year on March 31.
The Europeans are committing collective suicide. (Muslim) Immigrants are in reality Invaders and European countries and cities see a dramatic increase in crime and even Police forces are attacked. Each year we are moving closer to a Civil War.
The US-Government SHUTDOWN (like the heisha around the Debt Ceiling) has become a boring yearly Political Correct annoying Fait Divers and is not worth discussing. It again proofs politics and politicians don't care about 'The People'.
Since December 2017, we made +20% per year (excl. dividends) on the shares in our Pharma-Bio Section. DO NOT BUY these shares at present level - scheck the subscriber's section for more.
Important Fundamentals: see Subscriber's section
- The breakout of xxxx shares confirms we shall see HIGHER interest rates. Be sure you assert the situation and adjust your investments & portfolio properly.
- Gold is reaching new highs in 8 currencies and is about to break all time highs in 6 other currencies.
Friday January 19, 2018 - Big Changes and Rising interest rates around the corner!?
Updated Sections: Bonds in the EU, Corporate Bonds ,
A weaker Dollar is positive for the USA. A weaker Dollar will help to balance the trade deficit. Imports are at a record and the deficit is at a record high. A weaker Dollar will fuel inflation and result in better nominal growth figures.
Over the coming years the Dollar will loose the status of RESERVE CURRENCY. Such a proviledge goes as a rule to the strongest country with the fiscal soundest system. After WW II the USA had a lot of Gold and little debt. Today it has less gold and a LOT of Debt. China has become the country with a lot of Gold and little debt. What's more, China's Yuan is backed by GOLD. Therefore over the coming years, the Yuan will probably become the world's most desirable currency.
This will be especially so because the World countries will increasingly trade ENERGY (and later also other commodities) in Yuan rather than in Dollars.
|The Trend for the US-Dollar is BEARISH. See Dollar section for support levels and Targets.|
A weaker dollar will result in a bright future for the Gold & Silver sector, the Energy Sector, resources (commodities) and their shares. See subscriber sections for individual stocks to buy and to hold.
|This is a time to stay FULLY ALERT and to adjust the structure of your savings!
- As we don't like ETF's and bank manufactured financial instruments, the best other option to minimize the dollar risk, is to hold a minimum of US-Dollars and keep near-liquidities in instruments as xxx (xxxxxxx) , xxxx & xxxx (some still sell at a discount versus xxxxx)
- xxxx (xxx) Gold's Pascua-Lama project ordered close by Chilean regulator.
See Subscriber's sections
Thursday January 18, 2018 - What is sold as Democracy is in fact Socialism. And Socialism is in fact Communism.
Updated Sections: Bonds USA ,
Bitcoin is thrown to the Wolves but for some dark reason Investors still are convinced such won't happen with OTHER Crypto-currencies. Why is it that some fail to see THE REALITY!? Probably because the Fiat Price is still going up. I really can't think of another reason. Can't believe we can blame the moon.
For news to be read and understood by a great number of people, it must be simple, sensational and forgettable. Most individuals are not interested in “heavy” news or complicated issues. Just compare television and newspapers today to say 50 years ago. At that time, newspapers had very few pictures. Instead, newspapers covered serious matters with in depth analysis. The same was true with television…
Physical Gold is really the best insurance that anyone can own because it has an intrinsic value and it appreciates over time against paper money. If and when gold reaches $100 trillion, like with the Mark in 1923, the world will have massive problems. So it is not really something to look forward to. But what we do know is that, at that point, our capital is protected (by owning gold) as most assets, including stocks, bonds and property, will collapse.
The coming hyperinflation might not be as high as in the Weimar Republic. But even if gold just goes up to the inflation adjusted level since the1980 high, today it would be a jaw-dropping $15,500. Having said this, the FUTURE Fiat Price of Gold is TOTALLY unimportant. Everybody who understands this statement also understands WHY one must hold Gold (and Silver) and keep it out of political reach. Everybody who is holding Gold because he or she HOPES the FIAT PRICE will go up, hasn't understood NOTHING.
- Venezuelan oil production sinks again. Venezuela’s oil output fell by another 100,000 bpd in December, dipping to just 1.7 mb/d, the lowest level since 2002, according to S&P Global Platts. The drop off is steeper than prior monthly losses, and raise fears of an accelerated decline in 2018. S&P Platts says that Venezuela "has been suffering from a spiraling economic, political and humanitarian crisis, with state oil company PDVSA short of funds, personnel and equipment, and suffering under U.S. sanctions that restrict its financing." According to some sources, Venezuela is IMPORTING some oil products.
- see subscriber's section for IMPORTANT NEWS about the BOND market and INTEREST RATES.
Wednesday January 17, 2018 - Investment demand for physical gold on the rise while the west pile into Stocks, Crypto Bubbles & Pot-stocks
Updated Sections: $-Gold , Silver , US-Dollar , £-Gold & £/€/$ , Gold & Silver Majors , Oil Shares , World Stock Market Indexes (PF-charts with targets) ,
People are looking at Bitcoins, Crypto-currencies and other investment vehicles in the hope to make some quick money. During the process they are however not taking into consideration the very basics of SOUND Investing. As they say in french: il ne suffit pas de courir, mais il faut arriver a temps. (le Lievre et la tortue).
Few realize that at a certain point it will BY DEFINITION be IMPOSSIBLE to convert Bitcoins (Crypto-currencies) into Currencies (Dollars, Euro's,...) and/or Banknotes.
- These are the returns (+51% y/y) on the Oil shares we follow since December 2015; see section to find out which have to be bought and which have ot be sold.
- see our new charts with TARGETS in the following sections: $-Gold, Silver, US-Dollar, Gold & Silver Majors, Oil shares.
- on the PF-charts below we clearly see that we have hit the Points & Figures Targets for the Indexes. Either the Indexes will pivot and come down, either we will see some consolidation before HIGHER and the Target of WAVE 5 is hit.
|See large chart in section for World Stock Market Indexes|
Tuesday January 16, 2018 - There is a real story about Syria no one wants you to know about & Trump is a puppet
On several occasions we have explained that the CIA is trying to run the World according to it's own agenda. Those who have read the book about "The Dulles Brothers" know exactly what I am talking about. I also predicted that the CIA (USA) would loose the War in Syria as Russia and China would under no condition allow Assad to be removed and Syria DESTABILIZED like happened in Libya and other countries. Russia has won the war in Syria against ISIS, the CIA, MI6, the french,...not the Americans (CIA, MI6, Mossad, France,...)
The World and at least 85% of the inhabitants of this planet are being led by their noses by the Deepstate and the Mainstream Media (and in a lesser degree by the Politicians). We have however arrived to a point where the American Empire & Hollywood are rapidly loosing their grip & influence in favor of the Russian & Chinese and such is now also reflected by the exchange rate of the US-Dollar, the price of Oil, Gold,...
What happened in Libya & Syria has a severe impact upon West-Europe: we a seeing an invasion and not the immigration sold by the Mainstream Media. Over the coming months and years yhis will deeply affect Europe, the Euro, the European Economy and European Financial Markets. In other words, the strenght of the Euro may be shortlived.
Most Financial Analysts don't understand how GEO-POLITICS and Financial Markets often go hand in hand and are way too concerned with the SHORT TERM. We call it immeditate satisfaction. Medium and Long term are most of the time overseen and important decisions are postponed of forgotten about. Investors fail to keep their savings out of political reach, out of the Financial/Bank sector. Gold & Silver are most of the time NOT kept in a safety deposit box, etc...
- The SHORT interest of Commercials for OIL may be extremely high but this not always forecasts lower prices. Over the past years, Gold & Silver have been excellent examples that these statistics sometimes don't work.
- Over the coming weeks and months and each time such is possible we shall add these Target-Oriented Point & Figures charts to the site.
- First is a new Points & Figure chart for $-Gold. Tomorrow we shall publish the chart for the Dow Jones and the SP500.
see subscriber's section for the chart
Monday January 15, 2018 - The Smart Money And The Smartest Money Both Smell Inflation
Updated Sections:$-Gold, Silver, US-Dollar, Gold Target, €-Gold & €/$, Crude Oil price, Gold & Silver Majors , Juniors
Walmart is abruptly closing 63 Sam's Club stores and laying off thousands of workers. Some stores have already closed; others will close within weeks. Many employees were not informed of the closings ahead of time. (don't try this in Europe). Ten of the closed stores will be turned into e-commerce distribution centers.
Sam's Club has not said how many employees are losing their jobs. Each Sam's Club warehouse employs about 175 people, meaning more than 11,000 people could be impacted.
In some cases, employees were not told their store had closed before showing up to work on Thursday. Those employees learned their store would be closing when they found the store's doors locked and a notice announcing the closing, Sam's Club workers told Business Insider. At some stores, employees were turned away by police officers.
The American Retail sector has had severe growing PROBLEMS since 2016/17 and the problems are getting worse because the Real Spendable income of the people keeps falling. This PROOFS that the DEPRESSION is REAL and only gets worse...more in the Subscriber's section
Important Fundamentals: see subscriber's section
Important Technicals: see subscriber's section
Friday January 12, 2018 - The Euro/Dollar is doing exactly what we said would happen: Euro Spikes, Bunds Slide After Unexpectedly Hawkish ECB Minutes !
Updated Sections: Recession Proof shares ,
Europe has become an old, ugly, overregulated lady where the employee receives UNREALISTIC and extremely unproductive benefits: 27 days paid holidays a year, paid sickness days , up to 6 months paid maternity leave for mother and weeks maternity leave for the father after each birth, a social network where a minimum income is a standard, an almost free health care system,...think it and they have it.
This is WHY Europe will suffer MORE and LONGER under the Depression than the USA will. The more LEGISLATION, the harder it is for a society to adjust to the reality of life. This is the reason WHY Socialist & Communist societies always go BANKRUPT like the USSR did in 1989, like the DDR did in 1989, like Venezuela does today,...This is also the reason why business man Donald Trump - although he is bringing the change Obama promised to bring but did not - is painted as a vilain by the Red World Mainstream Media (whos' also dying).
Note: Modern Socialism & Communism is sold to the general public as Democracy and this is the reason why LEFT political parties have lost their voters.
+20% per year is what we scored with our Recession Proof Shares (DO NOT BUY THESE SHARES AT THIS TIME) since December 2014: dividends were not taken into account
- A scenario for the next 24 months of what will happen on the financial markets has been used several times. Only veteran investors may remember it. When at a certain time the general level of interest rates starts to rise, because of the bullish momentum Stock Market Indexes and common shares tend to continue their bull run for some time. There is a disbelief of the general public who stays convinced much higher levels are still to come. In the medium term only the Energy, Gold & Silver sector is able to cope with higher interest levels. (1981 Volker had to rise interest rates to dramatic high levels to stop the soaring price of Gold ($850) and Silver ($50).
- A weaker US-Dollar will make production in the US cheaper. Lower TAXES will make production in the US cheaper (it is the tax payer who always suffers most of higher taxes). A better investment climate will make that several US corporation which moved abroad under the Clintons and Obama will move their production centers back to the USA.
- the US-Dollar continues to weaken versus the Euro and hereby confirms it's DOWNTREND.
- a weaker Dollar means a higher Euro but also higher Gold, higher Silver, rising commodity prices and higher energy prices...
- the former results in higher Consumer Inflation and higher Gold & Silver prices.
- Unilever or an schoolbook example of a mature 18 year long cycle: we have an intial breakout and trend reversal, a 1st upleg followed by a halfway stop, a 2nd upleg equal in size with the 1st leg and now we are starting to work on the distribution...The distribution can either be a SPIKE or a Trading zone.
Thursday January 11, 2018 - We have come to a point where the Liftboy and Maid are telling us what to buy in order to be rich tomorrow!
Updated Sections: Stock Market Indexes expressed in Real Money or Gold , Long Term Stock Market Indexes ,
Stock Market Indexes expressed in Gold. The section shows the charts of the REAL WINNERS over decenia. This probably is the most important section of the site...and yet many don't seem to care and don't seem to understand. Most people don't invest but GAMBLE. This is WHY Casino's, Las Vegas & Bitcoins have so much success. People want immediate satisfaction and fail to see the medium and long term.
There are a lot of advisors out there. Many have their own theories of how to make money in the financial markets. Most however COMPLETELY fail because they have no vision at all and for some reason they keep measuring Profits and Losses in FIAT MONEY. Such is meaningless and dangerous. There only is ONE STANDARD to measure your profit and losses with and the standard is GOLD and only GOLD. Everybody who does it different is in denial of more than 6,000 years of history...more in the subcriber's section
Important Fundamentals: see subscriber's section
Important Technicals: see subscriber's section
Wednesday January 10, 2018 - It’s “Getting Pretty Close To Euphoria”!
Updated Sextions: World Stock Market Indexes ,
By manipulating markets and creating infinite liquidity, central banks are not just temporarily putting off the demise of the financial system, they are also creating a false prosperity by fueling global stock markets to new highs.
Whenever people starting buying up some item or asset exclusively because they expect to sell it quickly after a rapid price increase, and not for the asset or item’s originally intended purpose, you can be certain that you are in a bubble.
Today the economies are running on bubbles....The Bond market bubble has been inflated to its maximum: interest rates are extremely low and negative interest rates cannot be sustained over a long period of time without creating havoc in the world.
Months and years ago we forecasted a Dow Jones Industrial Index of 30,000. Lately we have re-calculated the Target using the latest market data. Our latest figure is: 28,400 or only 12% higher than today.
- Use TRAILING STOPS to protect the profits booked on common shares. Especially for all Recession Proof shares showing a BUY CLIMAX like the Dow does on the PF chart above.
- Over the past 20 years the TYX (10 year Treasury Yield) has never given a single FALSE signal. Each time the Moving Averages were broken, we had a trend reversal. I doubt that this time will be different. Higher interest rates will severely impact the Bond Markets and later also the Stock Markets.
Tuesday January 9, 2018 - The price of Energy is a catalyst for the Price Inflation Index
Updated Sections: Oil shares, Natural Gas shares, Uranium shares ,
When we take out $21, Silver will behave like Bitcoins...we could be over $100 in no time. It is however extremely hard, if possible at all the forecast as to WHEN this will happen.
I lived the 1960's and 1970's. I lived what the Gold Pool (click here) did during those years. I know the rigging went on until the banks and Central Banks were losing billion & trillions . Finally, when the day came the shorting stopped working, there was a bank holiday (week). The price of Gold officially doubled and took off from $34 and rose to $870 in 1980. No source ever explained HOW the losses were covered.
At that time the crooks (Central Banks & Banks) did not have access to these DERIVATIVES (because these instruments simply were not existing) and Central Banks and Banks could not create money out of thin air like they can today.
JP Morgan has a secret office in Jupiter, Florida where a team of specialists is doing all what possibly can be done to keep the price of Gold below the Moving Averages and Silver below $21.
Because of what happening in the 1960's and 1970's it becomes evident that Gold and Silver will probably not start to go up in an organized way and that we may see a BOUM...an overnight hike. After the hike, the odds are that it will be impossible to buy any Gold and/or Silver.
Because of the rigging, Miners have been hit hard. Miners however must be seen as an additional source of income and the Miner risk must be completely covered by physical Gold. Depending how long Gold & Silver are manipulated down to these marginal low production prices, we may see Miners disappear. The odds to see this however are EXTREMELY SMALL: few analysts and investors remember that the miners did survive 20 years (1980 to 2003) of extremely low Gold and Silver prices....
There is little doubt in my mind that we may see a sudden hike in Gold & Silver prices. Gold & Silver could easily double and triple overnight....when that happens the first and biggest danger will be Government who will probably tax the windfall profit away (to serve the community). Therefore it is extremely important to move your Gold (and if possible Silver) holdings out of political way so you can convert these at your discretion. There is also little doubt that MOST of the investors chasing 10% - 20% profits will miss this once in a lifetime opportunity because they refuse to make their homework.
- COMMODITY prices continued to improve this week on evidence that factory activity was gradually reducing surpluses of certain minerals and metals, said Bloomberg News. The Bloomberg Commodities Spot Index, tracking the price of 22 raw materials, jumped to its highest since December 2014 .
- Agriculturals are all bottoming out (see section).
- Energy prices (Oil) are resuming their uptrend.
- Soon it will be impossible to cook the Inflation Price Index and the Central Banks will get what they have been asking for the last years.
- we have several BREAKOUTS (and BUYS) in the updated Energy sections.
- when we take out $21, Silver will behave like Bitcoins...we could be over $100 in no time.
see subscriber's section for more
Monday January 8, 2018 - The fundamentals for the US-Dollar are getting worse each month
Updated Sections: Aussie-Gold & Aussie/$/€ , Swiss-Gold & Swiss/$/€ , Can$-Gold & Can$/$/€ , ¥-Gold & ¥/$/€ , £-Gold & £/$/€ , Kr-Gold & Kr/€/$ , Yuan-Gold , Rupee-Gold ,
Can you imagine what the US-trade deficit will be once the higher Oil price will affect the US-economy? Does anybody has a clue how the DEBT will soar once US-Interest rates get out of control of the FED ? Do you realize that a Prime Rate of only 4% would be a disaster for the USA ? Made in China is about to come back with a revenge: no country can prosper if it has to import all of it goods!
I can’t imagine what will happen to the Dollar with the world no longer required to purchase Dollars to trade goods. This is the biggest trade deficit since January 2012. Perhaps worse still, ex-Petroleum, this was the biggest trade deficit in US history…Just wait until the all the oil contracts start going through China’s gold backed Yuan, eliminating the Dollar.
The Gold-paper scams in London and New York will either blow up when the paper price of gold drops to zero or when just a fraction of investors insists upon receiving physical gold in return. The total trading volume in the London Over-the-Counter (OTC) gold market is estimated at the equivalent of 1.5 million tons of gold. Only 180,000 tons of gold have actually been mined up to today. The American Fort Knox gold is of low purity & that's why audit of reserves will never be allowed. Paper-Gold is a GENUINE SCAM and the day the paper-gold-chickens come home to roost, the gold & silver price may do better than triple.
I always said that the Chinese would terminate the US-Dollar at any time WHEN they want to.
How close are we to the 30,000 Dow Jones level we forecasted years ago?? Global Stocks Soared $1.5 Trillion - Now 102% Of World GDP...More CAUTION is required each day that the Stock Markets geyser higher and become euphoric.
- xxxxx re-opens Namoya after road damaged in clashes repaired. Pressure has been taken off xxxx xxxxxx, which said that production at its Namoya mine would resume, ending an operational hiatus that had been in place since September. During that time, the liquidity of xxxx has come under pressure.
- Trump is getting rid of these STUPID-EXPENSIVE-GREEN-SOCIAL-PROGRAMS and those Oil companies just LOVE it.
- ENERGY (Oil, Natgas, Uranium shares are a BUY. The Energy Sector lit up the final month of 2017. There are a number of dynamic stocks amongst this theme we profile (see section for Oil shares, Natural Gas shares, Uranium shares). The sector has become a SCREAMING buy (higher trending Oil & Natural Gas price and policy change of the USA)...see sections for our selection.
Friday January 5, 2018 - Maduro raised salaries of most Venezuelans by 40% as of January 1st 2018
Updated Sections: €-Gold & €/$€/$ , R-Gold & R/$/€
US Restaurant Industry Stuck In Worst Collapse Since 2009. After 16 consecutive months of continuous declines for the restaurant industry - the longest stretch since 2009 - the end of the tunnel for the restaurant industry is nowhere in sight. The US Automobile sales also is tanking...and the number of car repossessions rising. A bad omen this is as experience learns the Automobile sector ALWAYS is a canary in the mine for the Economy. One doesn't has to be an Einstein to know that in 2018 we shall see more RECESSION.
Some quick calculations show gold’s potential. A reasonable estimate is that around 50,000 tonnes of gold are available for monetary purposes. The bulk of gold, about 120,000 tonnes, is held as jewelry or private investments. At current prices the value of potential monetary gold is about $2 trillion.
The value of world trade is about $20 trillion (the average of exports and imports). If monetary gold is used to back up trade, that would drive gold up 10-fold. If some countries chose to use gold internally, the rise would be substantially more. And as world trade continues to grow, gold’s price will keep rising after the initial reset. If you are betting on gold reaching $15,000 to $20,000 an ounce within the next decade, you’d probably live to see it happen.
- There is no way the US government is ever going to pay back a $20 trillion federal debt.The taxpayers will just continue to pay interest on it, year after year. A lot of interest. And even more interest it will be once these start to rise and return to 'normal' levels.
- You cannot create something from nothing...and that is the reason why crypto-currencies but also fiat currencies will fail!!
- The stock market tops of 1929, 1969, 1987, 1999 and 2007 all had one thing in common; the asset class called “cash” was the singular most-hated asset on the planet. Portfolios had no significant cash such that when stocks began to tank, there were few buyers providing support. As for sentiment, in the last quarter of 2017, as records tumbled and the mania took hold, investor sentiment readings were flashing a major warning signal.
- If interest rates are allowed to rise in reaction to heightened inflationary expectations, the USD will rise creating a headwind for all US Dollar denominated commodities. continued weakness in the USD versus the international basket of similarly-worthless fiat currencies will create a tailwind for the metals and for Copper as well.
- The Point & Figures chart for the South-African Rand versus the US-Dollar points to a trend change and a STRONGER RAND and a WEAKER DOLLAR for 2018.
- There is a never lasting war between what Americans and Europeans regarding the US-Dollar exchange rate. 2018 may see a weaker Dollar...2019/20 however could see a weaker Euro. See pf chart below: 120 to 128 is the Mid Danger Line for the Euro. This resistance has to be broken before higher. If this line is not broken, the 2017 bullish action of the Euro will be a BACKTEST...and the Euro will confirm the BEARISH TRIANGLE & distribution zone. However, in case the Mid Danger Line is broken and the Euro breaks the 132-138 resistance level, the Euro will continue to strenghten against the US-Dollar (and the Dollar will continue to weaken). Today the Point & Figures chart below forecasts that we shall see a stronger Euro in the short run...but a weaker one starting mid-2018 or end of 2018.
Thursday January 4, 2018 - Grab your marbles and run: in Europe the ESMA-STASI is taking over the financial markets and the control on the savers.
Updated Sections: $-Gold, Silver, US-Dollar , €-Gold & €/$€/$ ,
If in the past months and years we advised you to move and keep your portfolio and savings outside of political reach, we knew too well why. The new EU-legislation is just a foretaste of what will come next. Those who do not want to listen to us will soon realize their stupidity. Compared to this, the Operation Gutt will be called a joke.
The legislation is of course not applicable to those who have diligently moved their accounts OUTSIDE Europe (out of political reach). If the EU legislator persists in what he is doing now (and believe me, they will) each portfolio holder may soon have to hire an accountant and /or administrative help (this will reduce unemployment) to ensure that the government receives all required information in a timely manner. [We are happy to assist our relations with opening accounts with financial institutions outside of Europe. It is (still) easier than you think.]
Welcome to the EUSSR where ESMA (European Financial Supervisor) will be able to check everything out up to the smallest details using Mifid guidelines. ESMA can be compared with a financial STASI. The 7,000 page legislation was introduced in silence and (of course for your own good) is now rammed through the throat of the EU-Savers.
The new measures are intended to provide better, more accurate information about the savings of the Belgian, Dutch and EU citizens and make tax evasion even more difficult. Until yesterday, financial institutions submitted a questionnaire to any account holder wishing to deal in SECURITIES. However the revised European investors directive Mifid II goes a lot further. The nearly 7,000 pages of new regulations shake up the European financial sector at almost all levels. Everyone who wants to invest, without the help of a professional banker, will have to proof his/her knowledge and will have to take a TEST.
January 1st, 2018 MIFID II has become LAW in the EU and citizens can only purchase securities if they have applied and received a national register or special identification number (see our 2017 newsletter). Companies or non-profit organizations must provide a Legal Entity Identifier (LEI). This is a code that identifies legal entities. Of course, applying for LEI costs money (89 euros) and is valid for only one year.
In order to prevent market manipulation (if you do not believe this, you will be told another story) all transactions in, - among other things, shares, bonds, options, and trackers - made by natural persons and legal entities are passed on to the Belgian regulator on a daily basis ...as would be the case in a Communist state.
A wise man keeps his Gold & Silver out of political reach AND does the same with his Portfolio. As long as you stay in good terms with your local tax authorities, you still can move everything out of Europe (exceptions are Sweden, Italy,...). We know of excellent and safe UL 3 rated non-bank safes where one can insure the contents of a box up to 100% by Lloyd's-London (even as a protection for political acts). Transport to and from the vault is no problem. We do assist our relations in opening financial accounts outside of Europe. Because we are NOT sponsered by nobody and don't allow advertsing on our sites...and we still must pay our Team, we do charge for our service... click here. ACT NOW while it is still possible. Soon it will be forbidden to move any of your savings abroad...
Note: in most cases non-European Banks are technically a LOT SAFER than European Banks and we know of some banks where deposits are insured up to $1 mio.
- No shortage of stupid things these days: Bitcoin, Litecoin, Pizzacoin, Canadian real estate, Swedish real estate, Australian real estate, Belgian real estate,.. But European bonds are potentially the stupidest. There was also a European corporate issuer that managed to issue BBB bonds at negative yields a few weeks ago. I think that might have been the top. Maybe even stupider than bitcoin!
- one market to watch on a daily basis in 2018 it is German Bonds. Germany has benefitted enormously from the ECB’s bond buying program and has enjoyed borrowing costs that were previously unimaginable. With negative yields on bonds out to seven-year maturities there is significant scope for higher interesr rates and lower bonds when the ECB eventually exits its program. It’s possible that Draghi has reached the logical limit of emergency monetary policy, and the ECB is going to have to exit sometime in the near future. The question is: how are they going to exit without blowing up the bond market? There was also a European corporate issuer that managed to issue BBB bonds at negative yields a few weeks ago. I think that might have been the top.
Important Technicals: see Subscriber's section
Wednesday January 3, 2018 - We are at War and during Wars, it is strongly advised to hold Gold & Silver.
Updated Sections: Silver , US-Dollar , €-Gold & €/$ ,
China’s Wealth And Influence Will Increase. This means rising Oil prices and a weaker US-Dollar. Last weekend China ran practice sessions on its prospective oil benchmark. So far, there are no reports on whether the authorities were satisfied with how they went. But I have no doubt that China will make the benchmark work and that in the near future the country will initiate an Eastern oil benchmark traded in yuan.
If that trading is successful, as it surely will be, China will start to allow oil exporters, including Russia and Saudi Arabia, to export gold from China, something that currently is forbidden. That is a necessary step to having gold backing for the yuan used to trade gold…
The new Eastern benchmark will quickly become more important than Brent crude or West Texas Intermediate. That’s because the East’s economy is both larger and faster growing than the West’s. Moreover, oil is a bigger component of the East’s GDP than the West’s. This will make it natural for trading in yuan to expand from oil to other commodities and eventually to all trade in the East.
Anyone questioning whether financial markets are in a bubble should consider what we witnessed in 2017: somehow this madness will stop and the bubbles will deflate. Unfortunately it is impossible to tell you WHEN.
- A painting (which may be fake) sold for $450 million.
- Bitcoin (which may be worthless) soared nearly from $952 to ~$19000.
- The Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank bought $2 trillion of assets.
- Global debt rose above $225 trillion to more than 324% of global GDP.
- US corporations sold a record $1.75 trillion in bonds.
- European high-yield bonds traded at a yield under 2%.
- Argentina, a serial defaulter, sold 100-year bonds in an oversubscribed offer.
- Illinois, hopelessly insolvent, sold 3.75% bonds to bondholders fighting for allocations.
- Global stock market capitalization skyrocketed by $15 trillion to over $85 trillion and a record 113% of global GDP.
- The market cap of the most popular and best performing stocks (Amazon, Apple,...) increased by more than $1 trillion.
- S&P 500 volatility dropped to 50-year lows and Treasury volatility to 30-year lows.
- Money-losing Tesla Inc. sold 5% bonds with no covenants as it burned $4+ billion in cash and produced very few cars.
Important Fundamentals: see Subscriber's section
Important Technicals: see Subscriber's section
Monday-Tuesday January 1-2, 2018 - We wish you all a Happy New Year
Updated Sections: Corporate & Junk Bonds , $-Gold ,
Central banks were aiming for inflation and hyper-inflation and this is exactly what they are going to get. 2018 will be the breakout year for Gold & Silver with an economy going down the drain and consumer prices going up.
Everybody thinks the Dollar won't continue to slide lower and many even see a higher dollar. We don't agree.
Everybody thinks the Bond market will stay high and interest rates will stay low and even go more negative. We don't think so.
Everybody thinks Gold & Silver won't shine in 2018. According to the CNBC prophets Gold lost it's luster and Gold & Silver won't go up together with interest rates...(although this was exactly what happened in 2017). The Mainstream Media have an excellent track record in calling exactly the opposite of what is to happen in the future.
Everybody thinks Oil & Natural Gas will stay low and can only go down from here. Same story for other commodities like agriculturals, industrial commodities,...Nobody believes any more in Uranium.
Everybody is convinced Real Estate has no way to go but up...and yet the market is coming down in many countries.
Nobody talks about a lower Dollar and about higher commodity prices, gold and silver...!? While this is exactly what we think shall happen in 2018.
Nobody talks about inflation...certainly not about hyper-inflation...and yet this is what we're about to experience.
Nobody talks about ''capital controls' , Bail-ins, Governments seizing their citizens' properties in an effort to cover their expenditures...and yet we clearly see Governments are just legally preparing their BIG COUP.
Nobody talks about higher Gold prices although this already happened in 2017 for Gold expressed in several major currencies: Pound Sterling, Turkish Lira, Venezuelan Bolivar,...Reality is that Gold expressed in several currencies is about to break an all time record...
- it looks like the JUNK BONDS may well be the 1st ones to indicate Interest Rates will go up in 2018.
- the maturing Triangle will have no option but to push Gold up.